So today is the PA primary, and when the results come trickling in tonight, the most important question is (or should be) who nets how much delegates from this contest. This race for the nomination is decided by who gets the most delegates after all. So I thought it might be helpful to understand how the PA delegates are allocated.
Based on the statewide vote, there are 35 At-large delegates and 20 PLEO delegates allocated. The winner of the PA primary gets at least 18 At-large delegates and 10 PLEO delegates. He or she can get more based on the statewide performance.
over 50,0%: 18 At-large, 10 PLEO
over 52,5%: 18 At-large, 11 PLEO
over 52,8%: 19 At-large, 11 PLEO
over 55,7%: 20 At-large, 11 PLEO
over 57,5%: 20 At-large, 12 PLEO
over 58,6%: 21 At-large, 12 PLEO
over 61,5%: 22 At-large, 12 PLEO
over 62,5%: 22 At-large, 13 PLEO
The rest of the delegates are allocated based on the results in the Congressional Districts, they are below the flip.
Psifighter37 has already made some predictions (Update here) with interesting descriptions about the Congressional Districts that decide part of the delegate count. I gave some information to the racial and economic background, which might give some insight on what to expect.
CD1: That’s southern Philadelphia, Rep. is Bob Brady (uncommitted). The district is 37% white, 46% black, 5% asian, 15% latino; education 66% high school or higher, 14% bachelor or higher. 28k $ median household income with 27% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, it should be safe to assume that Obama will in this district.
over 50,0%: 4 delegates
over 64,3%: 5 delegates
over 78,6%: 6 delegates
CD2: That’s northern Philadelphia, Rep. is Chaka Fattah (Obama supporter). The district is 31% white, 61% black, 4% asian, 3% latino; education 74% high school or higher, 24% bachelor or higher. 30k $ median household income with 24% of population below poverty level.
The district has 9 delegates, Obama should win here as well.
over 50,0%: 5 delegates
over 61,1%: 6 delegates
over 72,2%: 7 delegates
over 83,3%: 8 delegates
CD3: That’s Erie and NW PA, Rep. is Phil English (R). The district is 94% white, 4% black, 1% latino; education 84% high school or higher, 18% bachelor or higher. 36k $ median household income with 12% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton has the advantage.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
CD4: That’s NW PA and northern suburbs of Pittsburgh, Rep. is Jason Altmire (Uncomitted). The district is 95% white, 4% black, 1% asian; education 87% high school or higher, 27% bachelor or higher. 44k $ median household income with 8% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
CD5: That’s rural northern PA, Rep. is John Peterson (R). He is retiring with a crowded primary field. Not that many committed Republicans should follow Rush Limbaugh here as they also could decide their congressman in the Republican primary. The district is 97% white, 1% black, 1% asian, 1% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 17% bachelor or higher. 33k $ median household income with 14% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, it’s unclear whether Clinton can come up with a delegate advantage here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
CD6: That’s the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Rep. is Jim Gerlach (R). The district is 88% white, 7% black, 2% asian, 4% latino; education 86% high school or higher, 34% bachelor or higher. 56k $ median household income with 6% of population below poverty level.
The district has 6 delegates. The Philly suburbs should be the most competitive part of PA in this primary.I don’t think it’s too probable that anybody gets a delegate advantage here.
over 50,0%: 3 delegates
over 58,3%: 4 delegates
over 75,0%: 5 delegates
CD7: That’s the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Rep. is Joe Sestak (Clinton supporter). The district is 89% white, 6% black, 4% asian, 1% latino; education 89% high school or higher, 36% bachelor or higher. 56k $ median household income with 5% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, should be interesting to watch who will get an advantage here.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD8: That’s the eastern suburbs of Philadelphia, Rep. is Patrick Murphy (Obama supporter). The district is 92% white, 4% black, 2% asian, 2% latino; education 88% high school or higher, 31% bachelor or higher. 59k $ median household income with 5% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, we’ll see whether the support of the local congressman can change the results in CD7 and CD8.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD9: That’s rural southern PA, Rep. is Bob Shuster (R). The district is 97% white, 2% black, 1% latino; education 79% high school or higher, 13% bachelor or higher. 35k $ median household income with 11% of population below poverty level.
The district has 3 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 83,3%: 3 delegates
CD10: That’s NE PA, Rep. is Chris Carney (Uncommitted). The district is 96% white, 2% black, 1% asian, 1% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 17% bachelor or higher. 36k $ median household income with 10% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
over 87,5%: 4 delegates
CD11: That’s NE PA with Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, Rep. is Paul Kanjorski (Uncommitted). The district is 95% white, 3% black, 1% asian, 3% latino; education 80% high school or higher, 16% bachelor or higher. 35k $ median household income with 11% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
over 90%: 5 delegates
CD12: That’s SW PA, Rep. is John Murtha (Clinton supporter). The district is 95% white, 3% black, 1% latino; education 80% high school or higher, 14% bachelor or higher. 31k $ median household income with 14% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
over 90%: 5 delegates
CD13: That’s Philadelphia with some suburbs, Rep. is Allyson Schwartz (Clinton supporter). the district is 87% white, 6% black, 4% asian, 3% latino; education 83% high school or higher, 29% bachelor or higher. 49k $ median household income with 7% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, another hard-fought battle in the Philly suburbs.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD14: That’s Pittsburgh, Rep. is Mike Doyle (Uncommitted). The district is 74% white, 23% black, 2% asian, 1% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 21% bachelor or higher. 30k $ median household income with 17% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, Obama should win here.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD15: That’s the Lehigh Valley, Rep. is Charlie Dent (R). The district is 90% white, 3% black, 2% asian, 8% latino; education 81% high school or higher, 22% bachelor or higher. 45k $ median household income with 8% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, no clear favorite in that area.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
CD16: That’s the area around Lancaster, Rep. is Joe Pitts (R). The district is 88% white, 4% black, 1% asian, 9% latino; education 78% high school or higher, 23% bachelor or higher. 46k $ median household income with 9% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, probably no delegate advantage from here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
CD17: That’s the area between Harrisburg, Reading and Hazleton, Rep. is Tim Holden (Uncommitted). The district is 89% white, 8% black, 1% asian, 3% latino; education 80% high school or higher, 17% bachelor or higher. 40k $ median household income with 8% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, it seems unclear whether Clinton can get to 3 delegates.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
CD18: That’s SW PA with the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh, Rep. is Tim Murphy (R). The district is 96% white, 2% black, 1% asian, 1% latino; education 89% high school or higher, 29% bachelor or higher. 45k $ median household income with 6% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
over 90%: 5 delegates
CD19: That’s southern PA, the area around York, Rep. is Todd Platts (R). The district is 93% white, 3% black, 1% asian, 3% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 21% bachelor or higher. 45k $ median household income with 7% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, probably no delegate advantage here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates