Lately, talking heads on the teevee seem to have adopted a new idea to describe what is not happening in the 2008 Democratic Party primary. I could only watch a little bit of the returning vote count commentators without getting annoyed. On Fox, CNN and MSNBC, I heard at least one talking head on each say that "Obama can’t deliver the knockout punch".
I don’t think a boxing analogy does Clinton much good, because even if she hangs on to the last round (the convention in Denver), the judges (superdelegates) will hand her a loss by decision based on rounds (caucuses and primaries) and points (pledged delegates) won by Obama. I think the Clinton campaign has been pushing this idea because it has decided not to stay down, no matter how little energy (campaign contributions) is left, no matter how much brain damage is suffered (increasing negatives and decreasing policy content) so that there can be no knockout punch. In this boxing analogy, Clinton is Rocky in the late rounds, a brawler throwing haymakers (Wrightgate, Bittergate, Ayergate, FlagPingate) that hit Obama (Apollo) but glance off failing to find their mark, even as the referees (Gibson and Stephanopoulis) harass Obama's kidneys with rabbit punches (stupid debate questions). Obama seems to have sufficient rope-a-dope to avoid getting hit solidly. Now Obama’s challenge, like Creed’s, is not to get too cocky and leave himself open. He needs to outbox his opponent(s) and not go toe to toe with a brawler.
So I ask you, what would this imaginary Obama knockout punch look like? In Pennsylvania, I guess it would have been an outright win of the popular vote, but that didn’t happen. What about North Carolina where Obama has up to an 18% lead? If he wins by 15% is it a knockout punch? I doubt most would say it was. In fact, the only way I see Obama delivering a knockout punch is by beating expectations by a lot. With polling numbers coming out every few days, the expectations more accurately reset, so as time goes it becomes more difficult to beat expectations. When the votes are in, most of the talking heads compare the result to the most recent polls. So I ask again, what would a knockout punch look like? Can one even exist based on how the voting happens? Is boxing even a reasonable analogy?
PS It is not lost on me that Clinton came in to this primary contest in the role of Apollo Creed, and like him, suffered an embarrassing knockdown in the early rounds, and is fighting bitterly to keep the belt (nomination) against a relative unknown. So I could have framed it either way. It’s just that Obama more political grace and style in my eyes than does Clinton, so he gets to be Apollo. But no matter what both will emerge from this contest bloodied just like the movie.