When will the Democratic nomination battle end? Five possible times jump out: (1) Shortly after next Tuesday's (May 6) contests in Indiana and North Carolina, (2) Shortly after the May 20 contests in Oregon and Kentucky. (3) Shortly after the last primaries (June 3) in Montana and South Dakota. (4) Shortly after the last delegates are officially selected (June 22). (5) At the convention in Denver. In this diary I want to look at the delegate numbers to see how these scenarios might play out. I'll be using numbers from Obama's campaign results center but these actually tend to be more reliable than most media organizations.
According to Obama's campaign they have are projected to earn 1493 pledged delegates in the contests so far. Since there will be 3253 pledged delegates total, this means Obama needs to earn 134 more pledged delegates (out of the 408 available) in the upcoming contests to reach the magical number 1627, a majority of pledged delegates. That is he only needs about a third of the remaining pledged delegates to be the pledged delegate winner. This would be a foregone conclusion even if Obama weren't favored in North Carolina which accounts for 115 of those delegates. Still there is something significant about hitting that 1627 number which is why even those superdelegates who have talked about supporting the pledged delegate winner have not yet come out and said that winner is Obama.
Before we can discuss when he will reach this number it is important to clarify what the Obama campaign means when they claim they have earned 1493 pledged delegates in the states so far. This number does not include any delegates from states like Indiana or Oregon that have not yet had contests , but it does count delegates from caucus states like Nevada and Colorado even though those are only projections about what will happen based on state-level delegate selection that has already occurred. These numbers can change. For example the day after Iowa first voted (way back in January) Obama was predicted to earn 16 delegates based on the results of the precincc caucuses. After the Iowa county conventions (in mid-March) the campaign upped their projection to 25 delegates based on those results. This past weekend they lowered their projection to 24 based on the results of the congressional district conventions. This number included 16 pledged delegates that were actually chosen last Saturday and another 8 that he is projected to earn in mid-June. Why is all this important? It means that when Obama (and most of the media) announce that he hit the 1627 number and probably declare him the pledged delegate winner it still won't be official in the sense that a number of those delegates are being counted now, but won't be officially selected until later. By my count at least 85 of the delegates Obama is counting (including 38 from the Texas caucus) won't be officially selected until after June 3. Still the sort of changes we saw in Iowa were primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding the delegates Edwards earned there. We are n't likely to see the same swings in other states, although Texas (June 6-7) is a bit of question mark due to both a significant number of state-level superdelegates and the likelihood of some credential challenges based on some of the chaos surrounding their county conventions. I figure Obama's actual number could drop a delegate or two there.
With that in mind, let's look at those key dates again. Already Obama is the forgone winner of the pledged delegate contest but hasn't been crowned as such by the media or party leaders. (Even the recent superdelegates to endorse haven't said the reason was because of his pledged delegate win). It is practically impossible for him to earn 134 delegates on Tuesday (there are only 187 total at stake plus another 4 a few days earlier in Guam). Still, wins in both states might very well enough to cause many superdelegates including key ones to announce for Obama including possibly some switching from Clinton. Thus this is a possible end time for the campaign.
If it doesn't end there it's probably going until at least May 20. This is a key date, though. There are another 103 delegates at stake that day (plus another 28 a week earlier in West Virginia). This is almost certainly the day Obama will hit that 1627 number. Even if he had a poor showing on the 6th where he splits North Carolina and loses modestly in Indiana he would still have 90+ delegates from those states and 10+ from Guam and West Virginia. Thus he would likely need less than 34 of the 103 delegates on the 20th. Even a wipeout in Kentucky and a modest loss in Oregon would be enough for this. I expect many media organizations and superdelegates to declare Obama the pledged delegate winner at this point. This should cause a number of superdelegates to announce for Obama and I honestly expect a few switches if Clinton still hasn't conceded. I feel strongly she will concede at this point (if she hasn't already).
Still, though, some delegates may say at this point let's let everyone vote before announcing. This is especially the case if Obama "backs into" the 1627 number with poor showings in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky. If the contest continues past this point it should continue until at least the end of the voting on June 3. The two last states (South Dakota and Montana) are small, but based on performance in neighboring states and endorsements they should favor Obama heavily. As noted before Obama will already have earned the 134 delegates needed for the pledged delegate win, but may not have the 288 total delegates he says he needs to have the total number to secure the nomination. Superdelegates who were waiting until all the people have voted will now feel free to declare their choice. In fact, the signs from Dean, Pelosi, and Reid have been that there will be great pressure to choose at this point. This should give Obama enough to secure the nomination and the race should end here if it hadn't earlier.
Still, if things are close and Clinton is stubborn we should note that not all of the delegates have been chosen at this point. As noted above at least 85 of the pledged delegates Obama is counting from caucus states will not have been elected yet and a number of states will not have selected their unpledged add-ons (a few more superdelegates). There is a good chance that Clinton could in all fairness that he has not earned the support of the requisite number of delegates yet and keep fighting at least through June. (I don't think this likely, but there is a slight possibility).
Finally if she's really stubborn she could take it to Denver despite the tremendous pressure to concede. She can argue that superdelegates are free to change their minds (and a few have, but always for Obama) and she has even argued that even pledged delegates can go back on their pledges. This was what Kennedy did in 1980. But 1980 didn't work out well for the party and I don't expect a repeat. And while pledged delegates can technically disregard their signed pledges of support, so can presidential electors. If Clinton was really never going to quit and was going to make a futile attempt to have delegates disregard the voters, why does it matter what happens in Denver? Can't she continue to try to convince the presidential electors to disregard the vote in November and vote for her when the electoral college meets in December?