I know there is a lot of frustration on Daily Kos about superdelegates. People become especially frustrated when they read stories about Obama having twenty superdelegates waiting to delcare, but those superdelegates come out one by one rather than in a block.
Furthermore, the MSM makes it sound like the superdelegates are undecided as to who to back. Actually, the MSM's take is understandably: if the superdelegates have decided, why have they not declated. If rumors of blocks of fifty or twenty superdelegates for Obama never pan out, why shouldn't the MSM think that the superdelegates are undecided and are weighing each candidate's merits.
However, if you closely look at recent reporting and what has happened to date with superdelegates, I think it is safe bet that more than 75% of the remaining undeclarated superdelegates are going to declare for Obama. Indeed, I think 75% is conservative and I think it is quite possible that Obama will get more than 80% of the outstanding superdelegates. And I think there is strong reason to believe that in July many well known Clinton superdelegates will switch sides.
Obama's first ballot margin at the convention will be at least 300 votes and possibly more than 400 votes due to superdelegate voting.
I have two reasons for my assertions that Obama will receive more than 75% of the outstanding undeclared superdelegates. First, I have looked at the historical evidence of superdelegate movement since the Potomac Primaries on February 12, 2008 and have found that since those primaries, Obama has won almost 80% of superdelegate endorsements. (As you will recall, in the Potomac Primaries, Obama crushed Clinton by huge margins in Virginia, Maryland and DC.) Second, I have looked at recent reporting about what the superdelegates are thinking to see if the pattern since the Potomac Primaries will hold.
I should note that I have not included add-on 76 superdelegates in my analysis. For the most part, these delegates have been given to some who is know to support the winner of the voting in a given state. However, there have been exceptions, Terry Goddard won the add-on spot in Arizona and is uncommitted even though Clinton won the state. In Oklahoma (won by Cliton in a smashing margin), the add-on was Reggie Whitten who later declared for Obama. On of DC's add-ons went to Harry Thomas--who had supported Clinton (although he eventually endorsed Obama). AP did a detailed story on add-ons in early April if you are interested.
If you remove the add-ons, there are 232 undeclared superdelegates left according to Politico's superdelegate watch.
Since The Potomac Primaries (February 13, 2008 to April 30, 2008), Obama has won 79.31% of Superdelegate Endorsements<a</p>
I have used Politico's Superdelegate watch for my calculations. You can check out the Politico information on superdelgates here After Obama crushed Clinton in the Potomac Primaries, 116 superdelgates have made a choice between Obama and Clinton. Obama got 92 endorsemens. Clinton won 24 endorsements. That is 79.31% for Obama. Another 7 delegates moved to uncommitted (all but one a Clinton supporter or an add-on that should have gone to Clinton based on primary/caucus results).
Perhaps, you are thinking that Obama did better in February and his endorsement fall significantly after March 4, 2008 (Ohio and Texas). This is not true.
February 13, 2008 to February 19, 2008: 59 superdelgates chose Obama or Clinton. 49 went to Obama; 10 went to Clinton. So, Obama won 83.05%
In the month of March 2008: 29 superdelegates chose between Obama or Clinton. 23 went to Obama; just 6 to Clinton. Obama won 79.31% of the endorsements. Now, March was rough month. Obama lost Ohio, lost the primary in Texas, had to endure Rev. Wright.
In the month of April 2008: 28 superdelgates chose between Obama or clinton. 20 went to Obama; 8 went to Clinton. Obama won 71.43%. This was a particularly bad month for Obama. He endured Bittergate, lost Pennsylvania and had to deal with Rev. Wright part II
Despite Recent Setbacks (i.e. Rev. Wright), Reporting Suggest That His Margins Among Superdelegates Should Hold
In the last month there has been a lot more information about what the Superdelgates are thinking. The first of these sources is MrSuper.org. Mr. Super claims to be a superdelegates. This could be an elaborate fraud, but I read every single post and he feels like an insider. (But with the internet you can never rule out fraud. I suggest you read the site yourself.)
I think a key point that Mr. Super makes and it sounds right to me is that superdelegates are undeclared not uncommitted.
Mr. Super has suggested that basically all of the elected officials are Pelosi Club. He write in his April 24 blog entry:
Governors (7): All Pelosi Club members, though Kentucky's Steve Beshear could conceivably endorse Senator Clinton, and North Carolina's Mike Easley could endorse Senator Obama.
US Senators (19): As colleagues in the Senate, it's feasible that all could be Pelosi Club members.
Undeclared House Freshmen (18): All Pelosi Club. there 40 freshmen in the class of 2006, the 18 who have not endorsed look to be facing tough re-elects and don't want to risk splitting their base by picking a side. It's not what they were elected to do.
House members (52): Of the remaining House members, most are Pelosi Club. There are a few who may endorse prior to their state's primary, that's a total of nine members when you take out the Freshmen who were referenced above.
Mr. Super observations are supported by recent reporting. Politico reported last week that:
The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.
Essentially, they are three:
(a) Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket – i.e., themselves, or, for party leaders, the sizeable majorities they hope to gain in the House and the Senate in November.
(b) To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat, "The superdelegates are not going to switch their votes and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations." Such a move, he said, would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference in November.
(c) Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats.
And on Wednesday, Politico reported that Obama has won the battle of Capital Hill:
Obama is hinting strongly that he has prevailed over Hillary Rodham Clinton.
While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand.
"The majority of superdelegates I’ve talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing," said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). "They’re just preferring to make their decision public after the primaries are over. ... They would like someone else to act for them before they talk about it in the cold light of day."
All of this suggests that Obama is going win the great majority of elected superdelegates.
Now, I have not located stories on how the remaining undeclared DNC superdelegates (there are 133 in this category) are thinking about their vote. But I would find it hard to believe that they will lag too far behind the elected officals in their thinking.
And I think of a number of other reasons why even pro-Clinton DNC superdelegates will vote Obama. If you are a member of the DNC, I would think that the party is more important to you than any candidate. Party unity will likely be first in your mind. A vote for Clinton is a vote for disunion. So, even if you personally think Clinton is the better candidate, you might for Obama to avoid disunion in the democratic party. Moreover, why vote for Clinton and then have to shift to Obama in the summer for party unity purposes after he locks up the nomination with other votes.
Based upon the historical trends and the recent reporting, I think Obama will get at least 75% of the outstanding superdelegates. That would be 174 for Obama and 58 for Clinton out of the 232 remaining. That would leave Obama with a net margin of 116.
Obama is now up by a net of 135. Add another 116 to his margin will leave him at a margin of 251. (I am assuming the remaining superdelegates will spilt close to even)
I also think a number of superdelegates (especially elected superdelgates) will flip for Obama in the name of party unity. I could easily see another 50 flip. A flip of 50 would bring the margin up to 350.
Now, some will argue that nobody will flip if Clinton is still in the race. I disagree. If you are congressman and Obama has won, why stay with Clinton? I hate to be crude about it, but some of these elected officals will think to themselves: why tick off President Obama?
And if Clinton drops out, I could see the vast majority of Clinton's superdelegates flipping in the name of party unity. Believe it or not, a first ballot margin of 500 for Obama can be in reach due to superdelegates.
And finally I believe four superdelegates will flip for Obama in hopes of preserving Hillary's chances for 2012 (if Obama loses): Terry McAuliffe, Harold Ickes, William Jefferson Clinton and Hillary Clinton. That would be a net 8 for Obama.