I've seen a lot of talk about how the primary is distracting our candidates (and us) from the real target: beating McCain.
I believe this is going to be a difficult election no matter who our candidate is. Follow me past the jump and I'll look at some of the potential strategies against McCain.
- McSame, or "vote for McCain and you're voting for Bush's third term"
I think this is our strongest weapon against him, but then I also thought there was no way Bush himself would win again in 2004. McCain himself has made this case with the Iraq war, stating clearly that he will continue Bush's policy there.
I think on this Obama is the stronger candidate -- apologies to Hillary supporters -- because he offers the clearer contrast, having been against the war from the start. More than that, he is more immune to the charge of "cutting and running," because he can't be styled as voting for the war, then changing his mind when it became difficult.
I think that McCain will try to present himself as "what Bush should have been" and try to appeal to people who voted for Bush but are disillusioned with him.
- Personal attacks.
I don't think these will fly against McCain. It is Democrats who are vulnerable to sex scandals and the like, because we are associated in the mainstream mindset with popular culture, free speech, the sexual revolution, etc. Unless it's gay sex, Republicans can have all the divorces, affairs, and trophy wives they want.
Also, personal attacks create the impression of the "poor old white guy," beleaguered from all sides by minorities, women, and liberals. It allows McCain, as crazy as it seems, to play the victim card. He has a strong war-hero reputation, old school patriotism, and is generally decent guy (in my opinion). This is why I think going too negative will backfire. I think concentrating on the issues is actually a smart move, because it is on the issues that McCain is weak, which leads me to:
- He's irrelevant and out of touch.
I think this is a strong weapon against him. He makes it easy because he makes gaffes like not knowing that condoms protect against the spread of AIDS. Of course the media would actually have to report these things, which at the moment they don't. This is where the blogosphere can really make a difference. If we keep pointing these things out, eventually they will filter out into the wider world.
The danger here is veering too far into personal attacks.
- McCain is a flip-flopper.
This I think is our best chance to hit McCain at one of his strengths. He is popularly conceived as a "maverick," who will cross the aisle when he feels the other side is right. If we can keep pointing out his recent turn to the right, and how he is flatly contradicting statements he made against things like torture and Bush's tax cuts, it will go a long way toward undercutting his reputation as a maverick.
I have been wondering if McCain would tack back to the center after he sewed up the nomination. So far he has not done so (at least I haven't noticed it). I'm not sure the best way to exploit this, but his centrist tendencies and "maverick" status is what the right hates about him. Unlike Bush, McCain does not stay "on message." The right-wing attack machine will gear up for McCain, but will their heart be in it?
- Appeal to the pocketbook.
Republican policies favor the rich, big business, corporations, and McCain looks like he plans to fall in with the party line. Republicans manage to appeal the working class in spite of this by presenting themselves as the party of ordinary people, for lack of a better word. Somehow Democrats have become associated with latte-sipping liberals. This is an old problem but I suspect it will be a problem again this election.
Finally, we have to contend with the MSM, who seem to love McCain so much and cover up his gaffes. I don't know exactly what to do about that, except it makes our task that much more urgent.
Have I missed anything? Any thoughts?