For weeks now, there's been all this talk about how this presidential primary campaign might come to an end - if several prominent superdelegates were to endorse either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as a group. Or even, a larger group of semi-prominent superdelegates (remember the superdelegate surge that was rumored to be happening post-Texas/Ohio?)
Which got me to thinking: Who would those superdelegates be? Which superdelegates are especially influential - with other superdelegates, with the media, with the public?
- Obviously, a lot of folks have mentioned Al Gore. But he doesn't seem particularly interested in the job.
- Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid could play that role, but they seem committed to waiting it out.
- Jimmy Carter has negotiated peace treaties and observed elections all over the world. Maybe we need him to weigh in.
In any case, rather than brainstorm up names, I decided to attempt a Power Ranking of Uncommitted Superdelegates.
So, I poured myself a stiff cocktail, came up with some criteria, assigned some values, and came up with a chart that ranks all 286 uncommitted superdelegates.
What did I include in my criteria? Well, former presidents and vice presidents get big points, as do congressional leaders. Senators were valued slightly more than Governors, who were valued slightly more than members of Congress, who were valued more than DNC members and other folks. Members of Congress in tough swing districts, or those running for the US Senate, were valued slightly higher. Being from a swing state counted extra, and being from a big state also counted extra. Being from one of the remaining primary states counts extra, but being from Michigan or Florida carries a slight penalty. Folks who seem to have some sort of prominence got bonus points as well, such as former presidential candidates, policy leaders on key issues, committee chairmen, etc.
Now, admittedly, this is an entirely subjective exercise, an attempt at quantifying purely qualitative judgments. Hundreds of them.
The purpose here isn't to craft the definitive list, or to issue some truth from a mountaintop. Rather, it's to start a conversation.
What did I miss? Who should be ranked higher? Who should be ranked lower?
Which superdelegate endorsement are you waiting for? Which of these superdelegates, perhaps in combination with a dozen others, could put an end to this primary election?
[Some disclosure: I'm a campaign internet strategist based in Oregon. Several of my past and present (and hopefully future) clients are superdelegates - some Obama, some Clinton, some uncommitted. I'm an Obama supporter, but as one prominent Clinton supporter says, I'm an "Obama-come-lately." I was a diehard maxed-out Edwards supporter, for whatever that's worth.]
Without further ado...
#1 | 39 pts. | Vice President Al Gore | TN |
#2 | 38 pts. | President Jimmy Carter | GA |
#3 | 36 pts. | Sen. Harry Reid | NV |
#4 | 33 pts. | Rep. Nancy Pelosi | CA |
#5 | 30 pts. | Gov. Howard Dean | VT |
#6 | 29 pts. | Sen. Sherrod Brown | OH |
#7 | 27 pts. | Sen. Tom Harkin | IA |
#8 | 25 pts. | Sen. George Mitchell | NY |
#9 | 24 pts. | Sen. Joe Biden | DE |
#10 | 23 pts. | Sen. Mary Landrieu | LA |
#11 | 22 pts. | Rep. Rahm Emanuel | IL |
#11 | 22 pts. | Sen. Ron Wyden | OR |
#11 | 22 pts. | Sen. Max Baucus | MT |
#11 | 22 pts. | Sen. Jon Tester | MT |
#15 | 21 pts. | Sen. Jim Webb | VA |
#15 | 21 pts. | Rep. Steny Hoyer | MD |
#15 | 21 pts. | Gov. Joe Manchin | WV |
#18 | 20 pts. | Rep. Dennis Kucinich | OH |
#18 | 20 pts. | Sen. Robert Byrd | WV |
#18 | 20 pts. | Gov. Brian Schweitzer | MT |
#21 | 19 pts. | Rep. Mike Honda | CA |
#22 | 18 pts. | Rep. Henry Waxman | CA |
#22 | 18 pts. | Rep. Zack Space | OH |
#24 | 17 pts. | Rep. Tom Udall | NM |
#24 | 17 pts. | Sen. Herb Kohl | WI |
#24 | 17 pts. | Rep. Jason Altmire | PA |
#24 | 17 pts. | Rep. Chris Carney | PA |
#28 | 16 pts. | Rep. Jim Clyburn | SC |
#28 | 16 pts. | Rep. Jerry McNerney | CA |
#28 | 16 pts. | Sen. Jeff Bingaman | NM |
#28 | 16 pts. | Robert Schwarz Strauss | TX |
#28 | 16 pts. | Rep. Jim McDermott | WA |
#28 | 16 pts. | Rep. Peter DeFazio | OR |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Ron Klein | FL |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Pete Stark | CA |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Tom Allen | ME |
#34 | 15 pts. | Donna Brazile | DC |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Marcia Kaptur | OH |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Tim Ryan | OH |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Betty Sutton | OH |
#34 | 15 pts. | Rep. Charlie Wilson | OH |
#42 | 14 pts. | Alex Sink | FL |
#42 | 14 pts. | Rep. Mark Udall | CO |
#42 | 14 pts. | Gov. John Lynch | NH |
#42 | 14 pts. | Rep. Ciro Rodriguez | TX |
#42 | 14 pts. | Chris Redfern | OH |
#42 | 14 pts. | Gov. Mike Easley | NC |
#42 | 14 pts. | Rep. Bob Brady | PA |
#42 | 14 pts. | Rep. Mike Doyle | PA |
#42 | 14 pts. | Rep. Tim Holden | PA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Sen. Carl Levin | MI |
#51 | 13 pts. | Sen. Ken Salazar | CO |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Howard Berman | CA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Lois Capps | CA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Jim Costa | CA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Susan Davis | CA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Sam Farr | CA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Bob Filner | CA |
#51 | 13 pts. | Sen. Frank Lautenberg | NJ |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Nick Lampson | TX |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Chris Van Hollen | MD |
#51 | 13 pts. | Sen. Ben Cardin | MD |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Heath Shuler | NC |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Brad Ellsworth | IN |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Joe Donnelly | IN |
#51 | 13 pts. | Rep. Baron Hill | IN |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. Allen Boyd | FL |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. Tim Mahoney | FL |
#67 | 12 pts. | Gov. Roy Romer | CO |
#67 | 12 pts. | Gov. Brad Henry | OK |
#67 | 12 pts. | Art Torres | CA |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. Jim Marshall | GA |
#67 | 12 pts. | Sen. Daniel Akaka | HI |
#67 | 12 pts. | Sen. Jack Reed | RI |
#67 | 12 pts. | Linda Chavez-Thompson | TX |
#67 | 12 pts. | Sen. Thomas R. Carper | DE |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. Gabrielle Giffords | AZ |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. Harry Mitchell | AZ |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. Collin Peterson | MN |
#67 | 12 pts. | Joyce Beatty | OH |
#67 | 12 pts. | William Burga | OH |
#67 | 12 pts. | Enid Goubeaux | OH |
#67 | 12 pts. | Rep. David Wu | OR |
#84 | 11 pts. | Karen Thurman | FL |
#84 | 11 pts. | Rep. John Salazar | CO |
#84 | 11 pts. | Gov. Bill Ritter | CO |
#84 | 11 pts. | Rep. Joe Courtney | CT |
#84 | 11 pts. | Rep. Bruce Braley | IA |
#84 | 11 pts. | Rep. Nancy Boyda | KS |
#84 | 11 pts. | Brian Colon | NM |
#84 | 11 pts. | Sam Lieberman | NV |
#84 | 11 pts. | Ray Buckley | NH |
#84 | 11 pts. | Rep. Ike Skelton | MO |
#84 | 11 pts. | Gov. Phil Bredesen | TN |
#84 | 11 pts. | Rep. Rick Larsen | WA |
#84 | 11 pts. | Gov. Steve Beshear | KY |
#84 | 11 pts. | Meredith Woods-Smith | OR |
#84 | 11 pts. | William George | PA |
#84 | 11 pts. | Sophie Masloff | PA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Mark Brewer | MI |
#100 | 10 pts. | Scott Brennan | IA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Lottie Shackelford | AR |
#100 | 10 pts. | Crystal Strait | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Edward Espinoza | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Inola Henry | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Carole Migden | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Bob Mulholland | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Christine Pelosi | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | John A. Perez | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Robert Rankin | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Keith Umemoto | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Steve Ybarra | CA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Philip D. Murphy | NJ |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Michael Michaud | ME |
#100 | 10 pts. | Boyd Richie | TX |
#100 | 10 pts. | John Temporiti | MO |
#100 | 10 pts. | Dwight Pelz | WA |
#100 | 10 pts. | Susan Turnbull | MD |
#100 | 10 pts. | Awais Khaleel | WI |
#100 | 10 pts. | Lena Taylor | WI |
#100 | 10 pts. | Paula Zellner | WI |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Bob Etheridge | NC |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Mike McIntyre | NC |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Brad Miller | NC |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. David Price | NC |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Mel Watt | NC |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Alan Mollohan | WV |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. André Carson | IN |
#100 | 10 pts. | Rep. Pete Visclosky | IN |
#130 | 9 pts. | Dan Gelber | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Steve Geller | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Diane Glasser | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Andrew Tobias | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Jon Ausman | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Terrie Brady | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Mitchell Ceasar | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Janee Murphy | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rudolph Parker | FL |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick | MI |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Bart Stupak | MI |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. William Jefferson | LA |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Charlie Melancon | LA |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Rush Holt | NJ |
#130 | 9 pts. | Catherine Cortez Masto | NV |
#130 | 9 pts. | Yvonne Gates | NV |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Edward Markey | MA |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. John Olver | MA |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. John Tierney | MA |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Niki Tsongas | MA |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Lincoln Davis | TN |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Bart Gordon | TN |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. John Tanner | TN |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. John Sarbanes | MD |
#130 | 9 pts. | Nancy Larson | MN |
#130 | 9 pts. | Rep. Ben Chandler | KY |
#130 | 9 pts. | Bill Bradbury | OR |
#130 | 9 pts. | Frank Dixon | OR |
#130 | 9 pts. | Jenny Greenleaf | OR |
#130 | 9 pts. | Wayne Kinney | OR |
#130 | 9 pts. | Gail Rasmussen | OR |
#130 | 9 pts. | Jerry Meek | NC |
#130 | 9 pts. | Nick Casey Jr. | WV |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Bud Cramer | AL |
#163 | 8 pts. | Pat Waak | CO |
#163 | 8 pts. | Chris Whittington | LA |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. John Spratt | SC |
#163 | 8 pts. | Richard Machacek | IA |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Dan Boren | OK |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Dennis Moore | KS |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Gene Taylor | MS |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Jim Matheson | UT |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Mazie Hirono | HI |
#163 | 8 pts. | David Hardt | TX |
#163 | 8 pts. | Al Edwards | TX |
#163 | 8 pts. | Jaime Gonzalez Jr. | TX |
#163 | 8 pts. | Robert Martinez | TX |
#163 | 8 pts. | John Patrick | TX |
#163 | 8 pts. | Betty Richie | TX |
#163 | 8 pts. | C. Richard Cranwell | VA |
#163 | 8 pts. | Jay Nixon | MO |
#163 | 8 pts. | Robin Carnahan | MO |
#163 | 8 pts. | Yolanda Wheat | MO |
#163 | 8 pts. | Maria Chappelle-Nadal | MO |
#163 | 8 pts. | Leila Medley | MO |
#163 | 8 pts. | Ralph Dawson | NY |
#163 | 8 pts. | Irene Stein | NY |
#163 | 8 pts. | Gray Sasser | TN |
#163 | 8 pts. | Eileen Macoll | WA |
#163 | 8 pts. | Ed Cote | WA |
#163 | 8 pts. | Sharon Mast | WA |
#163 | 8 pts. | David McDonald | WA |
#163 | 8 pts. | Don Bivens | AZ |
#163 | 8 pts. | Rep. Madeleine Bordallo | GU |
#163 | 8 pts. | Michael Cryor | MD |
#163 | 8 pts. | Jennifer Moore | KY |
#163 | 8 pts. | Dennis McDonald | MT |
#197 | 7 pts. | Michael Tardiff | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Lauren Wolfe | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Virgie Rollins | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Robert Ficano | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Richard Wiener | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Jeffrey Radjewski | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Joyce Lalonde | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Lu Battaglieri | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Tina Abbott | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Kwame Kilpatrick | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Brenda Lawrence | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Eric Coleman | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Elizabeth Bunn | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Richard Shoemaker | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Debbie Dingell | MI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Joe Turnham | AL |
#197 | 7 pts. | Nancy DiNardo | CT |
#197 | 7 pts. | Ivan Holmes | OK |
#197 | 7 pts. | Larry Gates | KS |
#197 | 7 pts. | Wayne Dowdy | MS |
#197 | 7 pts. | Steven Achelpohl | NE |
#197 | 7 pts. | Wayne Holland Jr. | UT |
#197 | 7 pts. | Beverly Withington | HI |
#197 | 7 pts. | Keith Roark | ID |
#197 | 7 pts. | Jennifer DeChant | ME |
#197 | 7 pts. | Sam Spencer | ME |
#197 | 7 pts. | Anita Bonds | DC |
#197 | 7 pts. | John Daniello | DE |
#197 | 7 pts. | David Strauss | ND |
#197 | 7 pts. | Edward Smith | IL |
#197 | 7 pts. | Dr. Jeanette Council | NC |
#197 | 7 pts. | Muriel Offerman | NC |
#197 | 7 pts. | David Parker | NC |
#197 | 7 pts. | Carol Peterson | NC |
#197 | 7 pts. | Alice Germond | WV |
#232 | 6 pts. | Elsie Burkhalter | LA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Claude "Buddy" Leach | LA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Richard Ray | GA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Alexis Herman | VA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Joe Johnson | VA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Jim Leaman | VA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Jerome Wiley Segovia | VA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Debra Kozikowski | MA |
#232 | 6 pts. | James Roosevelt Jr | MA |
#232 | 6 pts. | Vicki Harwell | TN |
#232 | 6 pts. | Jerry Lee | TN |
#232 | 6 pts. | Dr. Inez Crutchfield | TN |
#232 | 6 pts. | Lauren Glover | MD |
#232 | 6 pts. | John Gage | MD |
#232 | 6 pts. | Belkis Leong-Hong | MD |
#232 | 6 pts. | Heather Mizeur | MD |
#232 | 6 pts. | Gregory Pecoraro | MD |
#232 | 6 pts. | John Sweeney | MD |
#232 | 6 pts. | Nathan Smith | KY |
#232 | 6 pts. | Moretta Bosley | KY |
#252 | 5 pts. | Nancy Worley | AL |
#252 | 5 pts. | Wilbur Lee Jeffcoat | SC |
#252 | 5 pts. | Gilda Cobb-Hunter | SC |
#252 | 5 pts. | John Olsen | CT |
#252 | 5 pts. | Reggie Whitten | OK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Mike Morgan | OK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Jim Frasier | OK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Kalyn Free | OK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Jay Parmley | OK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Helen Knetzer | KS |
#252 | 5 pts. | Carnelia Pettis Fondren | MS |
#252 | 5 pts. | Audra Ostergard | NE |
#252 | 5 pts. | Helen Langan | UT |
#252 | 5 pts. | Joshua Wisch | HI |
#252 | 5 pts. | Dr. Marie Dolly Strazar | HI |
#252 | 5 pts. | Blake Johnson | AK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Cindy Spanyers | AK |
#252 | 5 pts. | Harry Thomas, Jr. | DC |
#252 | 5 pts. | Christine Warnke | DC |
#252 | 5 pts. | Larry Cohen | DC |
#252 | 5 pts. | Harriet Smith-Windsor | DE |
#252 | 5 pts. | Margarett Campbell | MT |
#252 | 5 pts. | Cheryl Chapman | SD |
#252 | 5 pts. | Nancy Drummond | WY |
#252 | 5 pts. | Cynthia Nunley | WY |
#252 | 5 pts. | Christine Marques | DA* |
#252 | 5 pts. | Theresa Morelli | DA* |
#252 | 5 pts. | Antonio Charfauros | GU |
#252 | 5 pts. | Cecilia Mafnas | GU |
#252 | 5 pts. | Taling Taitano | GU |
#252 | 5 pts. | Robert Underwood | GU |
#252 | 5 pts. | Luisette Cabanas | PR |
#252 | 5 pts. | Eliseo Roques-Arroyo | PR |
#252 | 5 pts. | Marylyn Stapleton | VI |
#252 | 5 pts. | Carol Burke | VI |