One of the things I've always liked about the prospect of a Hillary Clinton candidacy is that she has demonstrated a clear path to reach 270 electoral votes. Her theory is to hold all of the blue states that voted for Gore and Kerry on the assumption that when push comes to shove, they will vote Democrat in what is a Democratic year.
She will also focus on the following states: Arkansas (home state for Hillary and won by Bill twice), Florida (we know what happened in '00), Ohio (lost by 120k votes in '04/voted for Bill twice), New Hampshire (went blue in 04 but not '00 (Nader factor), New Mexico (went to Gore in 2000, Bush in '04), Iowa (went to Gore in 2000, Bush in '04).
On top of that Clinton would also focus on the states that her husband won twice and which would be favorable pickups for an economic populist/antiwar Dem in the 2008 electoral climate even though they went for Bush in 2000 and 2004: West Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisiana.
That's a pretty big map both in terms of geographic reach and, most importantly, electoral votes. Today, Quinnipiac has released a poll showing Clinton in a solid position over McCain in Ohio and Florida. She leads 48-38 in Ohio and 49-41 in Florida, and is running even with Johnny Mac among working class white Democrats. Obama does not do as well and is in a statistical tie and slightly behind McCain in both states (44-43, 44-42). Hillary has also polled well ahead of McCain in Arkansas (and Obama well behind).
Given that Democrats will probably start out the general election cycle with 250 electoral votes, winning either Florida or Ohio will be sufficient to win the election. However, Clinton is expanding the map to earn a commanding 350 electoral votes, creating too many areas for McCain to defend.
The Obama camp's path to 270 EVs is less clear and relies on winning smaller states with fewer electoral votes, and states that don't have a tradition of voting Democratic. At best, his ceiling is around 280 EVs, just barely over the margin needed to win.
Obama is looking to hold all of the blue states won by Kerry and Gore and then add the following: Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and Virginia. His camp is decidedly less certain about Florida and Ohio, and isn't looking at any states in the south or in bluegrass country (West Virginia, Kentucky). There is a possibility that Obama could expand the map to include places like Indiana or North Carolina, but again he is hoping to win states that don't vote Democrat. Colorado and Virginia do not have a good history of voting Democrat in Presidential elections. Moreover, Camp Obama is looking to out duel McCain in the west, which is McCain's home region and where he is likely to poll strongest come election day. That is not a great strategy to win a general election.
Assuming that the party will unify behind the winner of the primary, Hillary Clinton looks to be the stronger general election candidate.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...