Last Friday I drove to Brookhaven, MS and had lunch with a longtime coworker. He's a lifelong Republican in his mid 40's who is very politically active and has only voted for Democrats a handful of times in his entire life, and only in local elections. After we loaded up on fried chicken and catfish and butterbeans from the buffet, I mischievously needled him.
So, D, what's your take on the Presidential election?
He slumped visibly.
D: Man, I can't believe it's come down to this. I don't like any of these candidates. I just don't trust McCain. I wish we'd nominated Romney, he'd have been much better.
I sensed a strong possibility not that D might cross over, but that he might very well stay home, the first time in his adult life he would ever refrain from voting. I decided to press him a bit.
Me: Well McCain's your guy. What's so bad about him?
D: Well he's not the guy who ran in '04, so who's he gonna be in January? I just don't believe a word he says. And his age is showing. He's making mistakes.
Me: Well, you could always vote for my guy [chuckle].
D: Right. Hillary's a Clinton, and Obama's never done anything. Besides, a black guy can't possibly win.
Note how he dismisses Hillary -- someone like this will never, ever cross over to vote for anyone remotely connected to the Clinton administration. He has swallowed stock tanks worth of Kool-Aid and probably believes the whole Vince Foster conspiracy theory hook, line, and sinker. But I sensed an opening.
Me: Obama's older than we are. He's been in politics since he got out of law school, you just haven't heard about it because most of it was at the state level. He's pretty well regarded in Illinois.
D: [shrugs] Well, he's still black.
Me: Have you watched him speak? I think for most people he's only black until he opens his mouth.
Now that's a line I've used a couple of times around here, usually to be accosted immediately by someone asking JUST WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?!?! as if it isn't obvious. It was obvious to my Republican friend, who brightened visibly.
D: You know, you're right! I hadn't looked at it that way.
Me: And think of it, one day Obama and McCain are gonna have to get on a stage together. What do you think that's gonna look like?
D: Oh God.
Me: And with the primary, Obama hasn't been focusing too much on the Republicans. Once he does, what's that gonna look like.
D: [shaking head] You're right, it's bad. You really think this country will elect a black guy?
Me: Well I don't know about a black guy, but I think after some campaigning and against your guy, there's a good chance we'll elect this black guy.
D: I have to think about this.
And with that the conversation drifted back to business related topics. The remarkable thing is that the Republicans have managed to lose this lifelong supporter by nominating McCain. He made it clear that they have an uphill battle on their hands if they want to convince him to hold his nose and vote for the guy.
As for crossing over instead of just abstaining -- well, if Hillary is the nominee, not a chance. But if it's Obama, I think he will really be tempted. He'll probably tell himself it doesn't matter anyway, since he lives in Mississippi after all and the only way a Democrat takes MS is as part of a 49-state landslide.
I think that first debate with Obama and McCain alone on a stage together will probably push him over the edge.