Rasmussen has just released poll numbers for the Nebraska Senate election. Mike Johanns (R) is beating Scott Kleeb (D) 55%-40%. For a number of reasons, I think these are very promising numbers.
Though this is an open seat, Johanns should have a huge built-in advantage. He's the state's last Governor and is very popular. Not to mention that in a state like Nebraska, the candidate with the (R) next to his name is going to have a big advantage by default.
Kleeb, on the other hand, is pretty unknown in the state. He's just 32 years old and this is only his second election. At this point in time, he should only be known in the 3rd Congressional District (where he ran in 2006) and by Democratic primary voters. That latter group isn't very large, for three reasons: only about 35% of Nebraska voters are registered Democrats, this was a closed primary, and turnout was relatively low (presumably because Nebraska had already held a Presidential caucus).
Also, Kleeb's favorability rating, according to the Rasmussen poll, is 56%-36%. Those numbers are great. Plus, I imagine that some of that 36% is based on people knowing nothing about him except for the fact that he's a Democrat.
It's only May. Once this race gets underway in earnest, voters will learn more about Kleeb and the gap will narrow.
This Senate race is going to be important in the fall even if Kleeb ends up losing. Obama is also doing very well in Nebraska. According to a Rasmussen poll, he's losing to McCain by 11 points. And, according to a SUSA poll, he's only losing by 3 points. In comparison, Kerry lost to Bush by 33 points. And even if Obama loses statewide, there is a very good chance he'll still pick up 1 or 2 Electoral Votes (Nebraska distributes 3 of its 5 Electoral Votes by Congressional District). Both Obama and Kleeb are grassroots/netroots candidates who engender enthusiasm and boost turnout. Having them both on the same ballot will be mutually beneficial.
I'll encourage everyone to contribute to Scott Kleeb. Contributions to races like this one make a huge difference; your money goes a lot further than when you contribute to more high-profile races. In rural states with small media markets, you get a lot more bang for your buck. A single donation can make a huge impact. And, in this race, there is a night and day difference between the candidates: the difference between having a progressive Democrat or an ultra-conservative Republican in the Senate.
And here's a gratuitous Kleeb photo for everyone to ogle over: