This diary makes the comprehensive case that Jim Webb is uniquely suited to be Obama's running mate and could very well be the key to an Obama-landslide for two central reasons. It would enable Obama to destroy McCain's key strength on national security, and it would deliver him the demographic group--working-class Appalachian voters--most resistant to his candidacy and most crucial to his victory.
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The following diary is in three parts: (1) stage-setting (2) list of all Webb's virtues and (3) why other running mates do not make the cut. You may wish to focus on the list.
STAGE-SETTING
To ensure a landslide, we need to destroy the opponent’s strength and eliminate our own weaknesses.
(1) McCain’s major strength is perceived to be national security. If that is destroyed then Obama wins every other issue by default: healthcare, the economy, the environment etc. on which Democrats have the edge. And McCain is actually extremely vulnerable here. As Obama pointed out he can’t win the argument on the merits, he can only win the argument on the image of strength and experience. So Obama needs a VP that gives him the credibility to destroy McCain. The worry now is that Obama attacking McCain looks a little presumptuous, perhaps even disrepectful to a war hero such as McCain. He needs reinforcements on this issue.
(2) Obama’s major weakness is working class appalachian democrats. If he can’t win them, he can’t win Ohio. If he can win them, he wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. His weaknesses here are two-fold.
Despite Obama’s working class background, Obama has a cosmopolitan air—he is more wine-track than beer-track in demeanor. (I just think Obama's classy and well-spoken, but the voting patterns speak for themselves.) Bittergate exacerbated and solidified an existing weakness. The reason, I surmise, that we didn’t see much movement after Bittergate was that the voters that would have been affected were already in Hillary’s camp.
Recall that even after vast ad spending in Texas and Ohio, we weren’t able to win these voters over. Obama was getting killed in this demographic far before Wright and Bittergate emerged. So the skepticism towards Obama in this demographic runs extremely deep. And this was shown by Obama’s slaughtering in West Virginia even after he was declared presumptive nominee. Wright, Bittergate, the false Muslim rumors, and the flag pin flap further deepens the skepticism towards this "slick new fancy-talkin’ black man from the city." So Obama needs a running mate who could connect to these voters and serve as a character witness for Obama.
Furthermore, the best way to stoke fear of the new and different is through national security issues. (3am ads anyone?) So Obama needs a running mate who will shore him up on this front as well.
WEBB VIRTUES
Enter Jim Webb who wrote:
"In fact, the greatest realignment in modern politics would take place rather quickly if the right national leader found a way to bring the Scots-Irish and African Americans to the same table, and so to redefine a formula that has consciously set them apart for the past two centuries."
(1) Secretary of the Navy under Reagan. Under Reagan. Would immensely enhance Obama’s claim to be the liberal Reagan and his claim to be post-partisan. Webb actually endorsed George Allen in 2000 and was a Republican before his 2006 Senate run.
(2) Decorated War Hero. Patriotism problems would immediately disappear.
(3) New Senator but with Executive Experience. Would reinforce Obama’s theme of change while dissipating worries of inexperience.
(4) Webb loves his guns so much that he was embroiled in a gun scandal. (According to wikipedia: "On March 26, 2007, a senatorial aide of Webb, Phillip Thompson, was arrested for carrying Webb's loaded pistol as he entered the Russell Senate Office Building and for carrying unregistered ammunition.") Bittergate, what bittergate?
(5) Scots-Irish Appalachian descent. Key demographic. Wrote book on the importance of Scots-Irish. (And has wrote on the power of bringing African Americans and Scots-Irish together!)
(6) Powerful attack dog who nonetheless comes across as no nonsense and apolitical.
(7) Great SOTU response and has a new book out emphasizing importance of working-class economic issues.
(8) Vietnam vet who could take on McCain saying: "McCain has learned the wrong lessons from Vietnam."
(9) Speaks Vietnamese and has Vietnamese wife. Diversity bonus.
(10) From Obama swing-state.
(11) Already weathered powerful vetting during his race against Allen.
(12) Big one: opposed Iraq war from the start
(13) Protects Obama (politically) in case of national crisis, real or manufactured, in run up to the 2008 election.
(14) Respected author. Bright and well-spoken.
Drawbacks:
(1) On his third wife, and in the 80’s penned "colorful" article about why women unfit to be in combat operations. However, he has already dealt with this issue in 2006 election and garnered support from female soldiers. Thus, not particularly a feminist icon. However, with Roe v. Wade in the balance, it should not be too problematic winning women over. Especially those invested in Hillary because she’s a woman. Though certainly an issue that would have to be handled with a great deal of caution. Will likely have to mend fences with Hillary supporters way before picking him.
(2) Perhaps would draw too much attention to national security issues instead of Democratic-favoring domestic issues.
(3) Not a top Hillary surrogate like Strickland or Bayh, so would not be an olive branch to Team Hillary. Some top Obama people think it’s necessary to offer such an olive branch to heal the party. http://www.washingtonpost.com/... (see last paragraph in article.) So again much intra-party healing would have to occur first.
WHY OTHER RUNNING MATES FALL SHORT
Clinton: The only way she shores up Obama on national security is in the wrong way, through unthinking bellicosity, as in "obliterate Iran" and her votes for the Iraq war and Kyl-Leiberman. Her ability to connect with these Appalachian voters is not a sign of her strength but rather of Obama’s weakness. Her working-class mirage would quickly be destroyed by the Republicans. Her ur-image is that of hardcore liberal from New York. She also carries immense baggage and would have to walk back innumerable statements were she his running mate.
Ted Strickland just got elected as governor, and Ohioans probably want him to stay and do his job as governor. Obama can still campaign heavily with him in Ohio without picking him as his running mate. Strickland derided Obama as an "American Idol" candidate and nodded furiously during the famous "shame on you Barack Obama" stunt. He does have an A NRA rating, was from a conservative "appalachian" district as congressman, and was trained as a Methodist minister. However, I’m not sure if he would be a good campaigner/attack dog and he has no foreign policy experience as far as I know. Not sure if he voted for the Iraq war or not.
Tim Kaine: Great but with no foreign policy gravitas. Little too happy and with funny eyebrow action.
Sebelius: Great but too much change for the West Virginians I would imagine.
Richardson: Bad attack dog and again too much change for the West Virginians. Obama can campaign with him in the Southwest anyways.
Biden: Runs his mouth too much. A Washington fixture. Doesn’t tap into the demographics as deeply as Webb does. From the Northeast, kinda.
Gore: Too flashy a ticket. Gore probably wants to preserve his political capital on global warming in case McCain wins.