Obama will, no later than June 2, 2008 have the needed 2025 delegates to declare victory. How you ask! Well, read on;
The current pledge delegate count for Obama per his web site is: 1611
The curent numner of SDs per his web site is 306. His total is 1917 and that makes him 108 delegates short as of today. The two SDs that have endorsed today are already included in the calculation.
So, how many pledge delegates does Obama get today. Conservative estimates are OR 29 and KY 18 for a total of 47.
That puts him at 61 short, for a total of 1961. June 1, 2008 is PR. He can surely get at least 20 out of 55 even on a bad day. That puts him at
1981 or 44 short.
Below is a SD add on schedule where Obama gets all the add ons:
Alaska 1 5/23/2008 Selected at the state convention
Georgia 2 5/24/2008 Selected during the State Committee Meeting
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008 Selected during the State Convention
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008 Selected by the State Party Committee
Maine 1 6/1/2008 Selected during the State Convention
With these 6 he is down to needing only 38 SDs over the next 14 days (including any new SD today) or just under 3 SDs per day. His pace has been higher than that though over the last month.
Note that this does not include any pledged delegates from June 3, 2008 MT and SD primaries that he is expected to win and get at least 18 PD.