Jonathan Alter from Newsweek has the review of the popular vote that I think everyone who is concerned about this popular vote argument (including myself) has been waiting for. It debunks her current claims of leading in the popular vote -- which we all know were ridiculous -- but unfortunately it doesn't make the endgame look good. What's glaring and worrisome to me is that it concludes that Hillary is not ahead right now, but she could easily be ahead after PR, and yes, that's even when Obama gets the uncommitted Michigan votes and those four caucus states. To me, he seems to shrug this glaring possibility off by saying that the popular vote is an unfair metric anyhow. Thing is, I don't think you can convince the American people of that.
Whether this count can ever be fair is debatable -- delegates are the rules, and if popular vote were the rule everyone would ignore small states and campaign in crowded ones. Plus, will MI and FL ever be fair, without knowing how many people stayed home, or voted republican? Also, as another diarist has pointed out, are we sure that she will dominate PR?...
... Who knows? The last PR poll I remember coming out of SUSA around PA-time had Hillary up by 13.... If she gets anywhere near a double digits lead, she can will the mess of a popular vote we have right now, caucus states and all, and cause trouble.
Anyway, without much further ado, here are the numbers:
Right now, Hillary's ludicrous popular vote lead involves leaving out four caucus states and giving Obama zero votes. This is silly and she isn't in the lead.
With official popular vote count (minus MI/FL, minus caucus states without official counts): Obama +449,486
Adding the unofficial vote counts in those four caucus states that were left out: Obama + 559,708
Adding MI/FL, with no votes for Obama in MI: Clinton + 63,373
Giving "uncommitted" to Obama in MI: Obama +166,000
So, if we count FL, give the MI uncommitted to Obama, and use the unofficial popular vote tallies from those four caucus states that were left out, Obama leads by 166,000.
This isn't much.
Whether or not this lead gets erased depends on Puerto Rico. The talking heads on the teevee think PR will be 2 million. Another diarist from PR would be surprised if it passes 600,000. I, for one, have no clue. If it's 2 million, then, well, sh*t.
[ UPDATE: someone in the comments said that I'm forgetting Montona and South Dakota. I mention below that we need to GOTV there. But Alter points out that these are two small states, and although Obama is expected to win there, the advantage thousands of votes he gets there could be easily overwhelmed by PR. I don't know the population of these states, but they count for 15-18 delegates or so (20-24 with supers) while KY, OR, PR etc count for like 50+ delegates (60-65 with supers).]
Honestly, there are so many things that could happen -- only half the delegates get seated, the supers remember that this is about delegates not popular votes, everyone remembers that MI/FL is a completely unfair thing and that we can never remember what the will of the people are. I became concerned when I noticed that an Obama campaign memo sent out after NC emphasized vehemently that the popular vote should not be used as a metric. I wondered, are they worried that they might have secured this metric? Plus, the Clintonites have been unusually confident about this one in particular, I mean beyond their current stupid claims.
But, whether its fair to use the popular vote or not -- and it's not, because then that would have changed the game and campaigning style, leading to emphasis on heavily populated states -- the fact is, the fact is that the Americans love the popular vote. It's, well, populist. The person who claims it will claim some sort of right. Someone posted a thing the other day saying that only 16% of the people think that pledged delegates should decide the winner -- the great majority felt the popular vote should. Any victory without it will seem tainted.
Nevertheless, these things are all beyond our control. Even though some people think that PR will not give her the popular vote lead, a good number do think so, and you can never be too safe. The only thing that is within our control, methinks, is making sure we get out every single vote we can in Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. Because no matter what the supers say, the popular vote is a very powerful metric amongst the people. They all remember Gore, and thought it all unfair.