A few weeks ago, after the Cook Political Report bumped the congressional race in my home district (MI-09) up to "Lean Republican" from "Likely Republican," David Wasserman (the House editor at Cook) told the Detroit News that the race "appears to be one of Democrats' better opportunities to knock off a veteran incumbent."
Taking a look at the numbers on the race, Mr. Wasserman's assessment appears to be right on.
Overall, among the challengers on the DCCC's Red to Blue list:
- Peters is 3rd in money raised online (via ActBlue)
- Peters is 5th overall in total money raised in the first quarter of 2008
- Peters' district (MI-09) is the 4th most Democratic, according to both the Bush vs. Kerry '04 results and the Cook Political Report PVI score.
Among the challengers who started from zero this cycle--eliminating those candidates who already had a fundraising apparatus and campaign left over from 2006--Peters is in an even better position.
For DCCC-backed challengers who are running for the first time:
- Peters is 1st overall in money raised online (via ActBlue) in the nation
- Peters is 3rd in 2008 Q1 fundraising in the nation
That stat may sound somewhat specific, but given the back-to-back nature of the '06 and '08 cycles, it's an important measure of how much momentum our candidates have been able to generate in just this election.
And what's more exciting is that in Michigan we have two top races. Both Peters and Schauer were named to the first round of challengers on the DCCC's list, and they have gotten strong support from the netroots and traditional Dem base alike.
|
Michigan District 9 |
Michigan District 7 |
Democratic Challenger |
Gary Peters |
Mark Schauer |
GOP Incumbent |
Joe Knollenberg |
Tim Walberg |
Cook Rating (Party + Registration Advantage) |
R+0 |
R+2 |
Bush Margin of Victory in 2004 |
1.6% | 9.8% |
Money Raised - Q1 2008 |
$349,000 |
$323,000 |
Total Raised Online (ActBlue) |
$210,505 |
$187,876 |
This is a race we should all be paying attention to, especially as the 9th District continues to trend Democratic. As you can see, the numbers tell a great story.