I live in South Carolina and like many of you, I am a strong supporter of Senator Obama. I spent many hours on the ground for his campaign in January and will spend many more this summer and fall. I take no shame in the fact that this diary is biased. I want my state, South Carolina, to be a blue state, and I think Senator Obama can make that happen. I’ve done the research and crunched the numbers and I truly believe that Senator Obama can and should win the state of South Carolina in the general election. Phooey, you say....Well read on.
In 1976 Jimmy Carter won South Carolina by approximately 13 points. In 1980, however, the far right Republicans behind Lee Atwater decided that their base needed to be involved earlier in the process. So the South Carolina Republican primary was moved up and set immediately after New Hampshire’s. This caused many Republican candidates to give an early voice to God, guns, and values and turned South Carolina into a pivotal early state for Republicans. Since then, South Carolina’s electoral votes have gone to the Republican candidate seven straight times partially due to the Democrats not realizing how important the state was for them as well. Finally in 2007 the National Democrats figured it out and decided to make SC an early primary and the first in the South.
Now there’s been a lot of talk about Obama’s campaign changing the map, however South Carolina and it’s eight electoral votes are not mentioned. We’ve heard a lot about North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa as states that can change the landscape. I agree with those possibilities, but South Carolina should not be overlooked in the equation. Here’s why;
Let’s start with the 2008 primaries. McCain won the state on the Republican side, but it was by a small 3 point margin. If it wasn’t for Fred Thompson, Huckabee might have won by double digits. The total turnout for the primary was 431,196. That’s a small turnout considering that in 2000 when Bush beat McCain in the highly publicized primary, the total turnout was 573,101. You see, many South Carolina Republicans can’t stand John McCain. McCain has never been socially conservative enough for them and they are very proud of the fact that they stopped his almost certain path to the nomination in 2000. South Carolina Republicans feel responsible for jump starting Bush’s campaign and thus giving us eight years of his “masterful” leadership.
On the Democrat side, Obama received 295,091 votes or 55%. That number alone was more than McCain and Huckabee combined. As you can tell by the percentage, it was also more than both Clinton and Edwards totals combined. The total Democrat turnout was 532, 227. One hundred thousand more than the Republican turnout. That’s huge in an open contest for President in a red state. Don’t forget that on the Republican side at the time of this primary, the race was still wide open. McCain did not have the nomination locked up yet.
Now let’s look at how these numbers might translate into the general election. In 2004 Bush beat Kerry handedly 937,974 - 661,699. In the 2004 Dem primary, turnout was only 293,843. 240,000 more Democrats voted in this years primary. Looking at Kerry’s total, more than double the amount of people that voted in the 2004 primary voted for Kerry in the 2004 general. If that happens this year, over 1 million South Carolinians will cast their vote for Senator Obama in the general election. More than Bush’s total in 2004. Now that might sound unrealistic, but keep these points in mind;
African American and youth turnout is going to record breaking with Obama on the ticket. Many people that have felt disenfranchised over the years in the low country in this state will register for the first time and vote. The distaste for McCain still runs extremely high in these parts among Republicans. Many of them will defect to Bob Barr and some might even cross over for Obama. The bottom line is all of the pieces are in place for Senator Obama to win the state and turn South Carolina blue for the first time in 32 years.
A few of the hypothetical electoral maps showing an Obama victory have him finishing with 274 or 275 electoral votes. South Carolina’s 8 could add a nice little cushion and be some insurance in case of any malfeasance by the opposition.
This has been cross-posted on my site