It is with a somewhat heavy heart that I enter my final prediction of the Democratic primary. It is for Montana, and, as usual, contains a homemade map of how I think the individual counties will play out.
BTW, my special connection with Montana is this: My Dad was born there (in Bozeman).
My predction for Montana is this: Obama 60.1% Clinton 38.7% Other 1.3% I think turnout for this primary will be high. Montana allows registration right up to the election day, which usually bolsters turnout. Also, it's an open primary. I'm going to cautiously predict about 55% turnout or 341,000 voters, with Obama netting around 70,000 votes. That might be a tad optimistic. We shall see.
Coming to this prediction has been somewhat difficult. There has been exactly one poll conducted in the state of Montana for the Democratic primary since December. This was the Mason Dixon poll from May 21st and it shows a resounding victory for Obama 52-35 with 13% undecided. http://www.helenair.com/...
The Mason-Dixon poll notwithstanding, there are several factors that could lead to a massive Obama victory in Montana.
1. Regionalism.
Obama does extremely well in the Western states. Hillary Clinton has won only one state west of the Mississippi (excluding her "home state" of Arkansas) by double digits and that was Oklahoma. The other states she won were all by single digits (CA, AZ, NM, and TX if you count that as a win for her).
2. Religious considerations.
Montana is 15% Lutheran and Obama has done well in states with large Lutheran populations (Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin). Also, 18% of Montanans classify themselves as non-religious, which is a relatively high percentage (in Oregon, it was 21%) and that type of statistic is favorable to Obama as well. 55% of Montanans are Protestant while 24% are Catholic.
3. Ethnic considerations.
As I stated in a previous diary, Obama has done well in states with a high percentage of people of German and/or Scandinavian descent, depending on the region. In Oregon, where Obama won by 18 points, the population is roughly 20% German and 5-7% Scandinavian (which is high for a U.S. state). In Montana, 27% of residents are of German descent and around 15% are of Scandinavian descent. In fact, Montana has the fourth highest percentage of Norwegian Americans (10.6%) and the ninth highest percentage of Swedish Americans (3.4%) in the country.
In addition, Montana has the 5th highest percentage of Native Americans in the United States at 6.3%. I honestly have no idea how Obama will fare with Native American voters in Montana, except that the Native American Times endorsed him just before Super Tuesday and the Crow Nation in Bighorn County gave him a rousing welcome at his campaign stop there. There are, to my knowledge, at least two counties that are majority Native American in Montana - Glacier and Bighorn - so it will be very interesting to see if Obama wins those counties in the upcoming primary.
4. Education.
According to quickfacts.census.gov, the level of education in Montana is solid. Montana matches the national average in terms of percentage of residents holding Bachelor's Degrees (24.4%) and exceeds the national average in terms of residents graduating from high school (87% to 80%). Obama does very well in places with these types of statistics.
Montana has only one Congressional District.
Here is a map of Montana's counties.
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And here is a map which shows how I think the different counties will play out.
Dark Blue - Obama Strong
Blue - Obama
White - Tossup
Red - Clinton
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For those of you who are unfamiliar with Montana, its largest city by far is Billings (100,000+), located in Yellowstone County.
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And here's Butte. Butte will vote for Barack.
Montana's capital, Helena? You betcha they'll vote for Barack there!
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Bozeman, which will be an enormous Obama stronghold, is in Gallatin County. Gallatin County is a place of amazing scenery. The Gallatin River Valley is simply breathtaking. Incidentally, 49.5% of Bozeman citizens carry a Bachelor's Degree or higher. For all the talk about Obama cleaning up in Missoula (and he will clean up there), his margin of victory in Bozeman should be even higher.
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West Yellowstone is a town at the southern end of Gallatin County. It sits on the edge of Wyoming. It gets very cold there in the Wintertime. Brrrrr!
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Ah, the Gallatin River. Isn't it just beautiful?! If you're passing through there, be sure to stop and eat at the Cinnamon Lodge. They do serve up some great food!
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Missoula is, of course, another Obama stronghold, with 38% of residents carrying Bachelor's Degrees. If you make it to Missoula, be sure to eat at Finnegan's and try to get a seat overlooking Rattlesnake Creek, which is a tributary of Clark Fork, which is a tributary of the Columbia River. That's right, they built this restaurant over Rattlesnake Creek!
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Glacier National Park (Glacier County) is one of our national treasures. The picture here shows Avalanche Creek, the eerie blueness of which is caused by glacial silt.
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Doesn't this picture just make you want to move to Montana? :)
I wanted to put up some pictures of Great Falls, Kalispell, and others, but I ran out of time. If I repost this diary on June 2nd, I'll be sure and track down some more photos.
As a side note, Obama's margin of victory could be even higher in South Dakota. South Dakota has the third highest percentage of Native Americans (8.8%), the third highest percentage of Norwegian Americans (15.3%) and the 5th highest percentage of Swedish Americans (3.9%) in the U.S. Moreover, a whopping 40.7% of South Dakotans are of German ancestry. Additionally, 27% of South Dakotans are Lutheran, so look out! My prediction for South Dakota: Obama 62% Clinton 37% Other 1%