- it will be decided on or before May 20:
I don't know if this is mentioned elsewhere, but Obama is on course to pass the 50% mark in pledged delegates on the day of the KY and OR primaries.
That will make Obama the winner of the "people's choice" phase of the 2008 Democratic primaries. The people will have spoken. Then it will be up to the supers to follow the will of the people, or explain why they will not.
Numbers below:
(Figures taken from DCW as of 5/5/2008)
The total number of pledged delegates available ............... 3,253.0
A simple majority to win the pledged delegate race ............ 1,627.0
Obama's total number of pledged delegates ....................... 1,490.5
Pledged delegates Obama needs to win over 50% .................136.5
(Total number of pledged delegates not yet assigned ............ 404)
From May 6 thru May 20, 318 pledged delegates will be chosen by primaries in IN, NC, WV, KY, and OR. Obama needs only 43% of those delegates to win the pledged delegate race.
To actually win the pledged delegate race by May 20, Clinton would have to win 287.5 of the 318 delegates, or slightly over 90%.
When Obama achieves the majority in pledged delegates, the "Pelosi Club" superdelegates come into play - these are "superdelegates who have specifically committed to vote for the leader in pledged delegates."
This club is small with only 9 members, but includes President Jimmy Carter as of 5/1/08. And I believe there is good reason to hope that it will provide all the rationale needed for a large movement of superdelegates to the Obama column.
Update 5/1: Former President Jimmy Carter joins the Pelosi Club:
"And I think that many super-delegates who have not yet declared their preference have the same feeling that I do, including the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. She’s said over and over that whoever gets the most [pledged] delegates by June 3rd ought to be the nominee. - UK Telegraph