The popular vote is a fallacy, as I've written before. A brief recap: 1) Candidates would camp out in large urban areas like LA and Brooklyn and never spend so many millions trying to split 200,000 votes in the whole state of NH; 2) No state would rationally hold a caucus, thereby disenfranchising its say in the nomination selection; and 3) unlike the general election concept of one person, one vote, allowing independents or Republicans to vote in some states but not others badly skews the simplistic moral argument underpinning popular vote.
Tuesday night, I am watching two numbers. First, if Obama takes down a combined 98 pledged delegates then pledged delegate checkmate can officially be declared, with the remaining 37 proportional races guaranteed to give Obama at least a minimum 1 vote and thus put him over the top on the minimum viability alone.
Second, I want to see Obama erase Clinton's PA popular vote gain, which would finally drive a stake into that argument.
This diary is a straightforward analysis of what it will take to regain 214,224 votes.
There are still numbers trickling in, but right now there are about 3,877,000 registered eligible voters in NC. The big question is what will overall turnout be. Many want to peg this turnout to a percentage of Kerry vote in 2004. I have been more persuaded by comparisons to this particular primary season and the data points that have come before.
One thing that seems true, generally speaking, is that turnout has gained as the nomination battle has moved forward, particularly after Super Tuesday. There are some obvious reasons. One, the high visibility of the story has reminded many voters who vote in later states to get registered in time for their primaries. Two, the Republican battle was over after Super Tuesday and so semi-open and open primaries did not force anyone to choose which side to vote on (as happened in NH). Three, after Super Tuesday, the campaigns could focus more concentrated on-ground organizing and voter registration in states by ones and twos instead of 22 at a time.
PA was a closed primary and set the record, at a whopping 55%. If Dems turn out at 55% in NC and make up 80% of the turnout, Dem turnout will be at around 1.45M and overall turnout will be around 1.81M. That would be 46.7% of the overall eligible voters for this election.
By how many points would Obama need to win NC, in order to erase Clinton's PA popular vote gain and shut everyone up?
Eligible voters: 3,877,000.
30% turnout: Obama by 18.4%
31% turnout: Obama by 17.8%
32% turnout: Obama by 17.3%
33% turnout: Obama by 16.7%
34% turnout: Obama by 16.3%
35% turnout: Obama by 15.8%
36% turnout: Obama by 15.3%
37% turnout: Obama by 14.9%
38% turnout: Obama by 14.5%
39% turnout: Obama by 14.2%
40% turnout: Obama by 13.8%
41% turnout: Obama by 13.5%
42% turnout: Obama by 13.2%
43% turnout: Obama by 12.9%
44% turnout: Obama by 12.6%
45% turnout: Obama by 12.3%
46% turnout: Obama by 12.0%
47% turnout: Obama by 11.8%
48% turnout: Obama by 11.5%
49% turnout: Obama by 11.3%
50% turnout: Obama by 11.1%
If black voters make up 36% of the overall vote, and they split 90-10 Obama, what percent of the white + other vote does Obama need to win in order to achieve this PA erasure?
30% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 41.9%
31% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 41.4%
32% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 41.0%
33% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 40.6%
34% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 40.2%
35% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 39.8%
36% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 39.5%
37% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 39.2%
38% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 38.9%
39% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 38.6%
40% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 38.3%
41% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 38.0%
42% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 37.8%
43% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 37.5%
44% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 37.3%
45% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 37.1%
46% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 36.9%
47% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 36.7%
48% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 36.5%
49% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 36.3%
50% turnout: Obama white+other vote percentage needed 36.1%
"Other" is about 5 or 6 percent of the overall total, maybe 10% of the combined white+other. Polling shows Obama is attracting roughly 37% of the white vote statewide, so if he is splitting "other" 50/50, that bumps 37 up to 38.3, which is exactly what he would need to erase PA if overall turnout is 40%.
Now, the numbers can be toggled with, adjusting AA share of the overall vote slightly upward or downward, adjusting the 90-10 win slightly downward. But in this diary I've given you a baseline and also a goal for the number watching. In particular tomorrow, pay attention to the predictions of overall turnout. During the day, PA was predicted at 52% and wound up being 55%. Bigger turnout is better. Higher share of AA turnout is much better.
If 387,049 have already voted, that is 10.0% of overall turnout already. If blacks made up 40% of that vote, and 40% overall winds up being the turnout number (around 1,550,800), then election day share of the AA vote needs to be 34.7% in order to hit the assumption scenario played with above of 36%.
Put another way, if early voting was almost exactly one-quarter of the eventual vote, and black voting on election day comprises 34.7%, and black votes split 90-10 for Obama, then in order to erase Clinton's popular vote gain in PA, Obama needs 37% of the white vote and 50% of the "other" vote.
I will try to do a results tracking diary for North Carolina tomorrow. I emailed Rieux about splitting the states but haven't heard back.
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 eastern. Indiana polls close mostly at 6pm eastern, but the NW and SW parts of the state close at 7pm eastern. Indiana should be very close, inside of 50,000 votes, or 5% (my guess).
ELECTION DAY UPDATE: Looks like NC will be massive, 50%. That would mean to erase PA popular vote margin, Obama needs to win by 11.1%.
If one-fifth voted early, and AA was 40.6% of that group, then it has to be 34.9% today for the overall total to be 36%. Again, a 90-10 split in AA means Obama needs 36.1% of the white+other vote, which means the white vote alone could be around 35% for Obama and he gets there.
Massive turnout is good for Obama in NC.