This is my attempt to quantify the potential Limbaugh Effect in Indiana (the Limbaugh Effect, or LE henceforth, being the effect that Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos - in which he encouraged his listeners to vote for Hilary Clinton in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries - ended up having on the very close outcome in Indiana.
A few notes before the numbers:
First, I don't really care about this all that much. I think your vote is your vote, use it how you like. I personally wouldn't cast my vote so tactically, but I don't have a moral problem with the practice.
Second, the MSNBC coverage is of course currently talking about this being a potential nail in the Clinton coffin, so this uninteresting and morally ambiguous point may be moot anyway (rec this diary!).
Lastly, Indiana is not yet done. If despite all of this, you'd like to know whether or not Rush Limbaugh may ultimately have provided the margin in the race, read on!
Currently, as of 12:04 am EST on May 7th, Indiana results are:
92% Reporting
Clinton: 588,823
Obama: 568,156
Clinton +20,667
Reporters are saying it will get closer as more votes come in from Gary, and even potentially from absentee ballots that will be counted tomorrow. So exactly how many votes might Rush have delivered for Clinton through "Operation Chaos"?
Rush has 13.8 million weekly listeners. There are 300 million Americans, give or take.
% of Americans who are regular Limbaugh listeners = 4.6
Now, we cannot assume that 4.6% of Indiana votes were cast mischievously for Clinton, because not all of his listeners will participate in operation chaos. Let us assume that no registered Democrats and no Independents are participants, just to be safe. But republicans? Certainly some of them must be in on it, right? [If arbitrary math makes you uncomfortable, leave this diary now.]
It seems safe to assume that at least 4.6% of Indiana republicans listen to Rush. In fact, that seems more than safe, seeing as babies can't be republicans, but are nonetheless counted among the 300 million Americans. In other words, because babies are not republicans, republicans must logically skew "rush listener." I will leave it to the DailyKos community to come up with other common sense reasons Indiana Republicans might skew "rush". There are many.
I think, in fact, that it is safe to assume that - as a ratio - at least as many Indiana Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary are on board with "Operation Mischief" as Americans listen to Rush at all. Right? If 4.6% of all Americans - babies, you and me included - listen to him at all, then certainly 4.6% of republicans in Indiana who voted in the Democratic Primary are loyal enough listeners to follow Rush's commands, right? They call themselves "ditto heads," for the gods' sake (I've been watching Battlestar Galactica).
More math now.
Exit polls stated that 11% of voters in the Democratic primary were republicans.
11% of 1.156979 million votes cast in Democratic Primary = 127,268
So, give or take a few thousand, 125,000 republicans voted in our primary. We're assuming that 4.6% of Indiana republicans who voted in our primary are dittoheads, so:
4.6% of 127,268 = 5,854
5,854 dittoheads voting in the Illinois Indiana primary.
I draw no conclusions. The votes haven't even been counted yet. But I think it is very safe to assume that thousands of votes, probably between two and eight thousand, were cast mischievously. Discuss, speculate, and flame.