Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/24-26/07 results)
Cornyn (R) 48 (51)
Noriega (D) 44 (35)
That is nothing short of astounding. And lest anyone worry that it's an outlier, these numbers confirm a Rasmussen poll from earlier this week:
Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43
I also pitted McCain against both Obama and Clinton, and here, the results are a little less encouraging:
McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 39
McCain (R) 53
Clinton (D) 38
Crosstabs below the fold.
TEXAS POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008
The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from May 5 through May 7, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 295 (49%)
Women 305 (51%)
Democrats 199 (33%)
Republicans 244 (41%)
Independents/Other 157 (26%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 204 (34%)
60+ 96 (16%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Cornyn? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 22% 28% 21% 20% 9%
MEN 23% 32% 19% 18% 8%
WOMEN 21% 24% 23% 22% 10%
DEMOCRATS 10% 17% 32% 33% 8%
REPUBLICANS 34% 39% 13% 10% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 20% 26% 20% 20% 14%
18-29 18% 25% 24% 24% 9%
30-44 27% 32% 18% 16% 7%
45-59 23% 29% 19% 18% 11%
60+ 19% 26% 24% 23% 8%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Noriega? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 18% 24% 17% 14% 27%
MEN 16% 21% 21% 16% 26%
WOMEN 20% 27% 13% 12% 28%
DEMOCRATS 33% 40% 10% 5% 12%
REPUBLICANS 7% 12% 26% 23% 32%
INDEPENDENTS 17% 23% 13% 11% 36%
18-29 22% 28% 13% 10% 27%
30-44 15% 20% 22% 18% 25%
45-59 16% 22% 20% 16% 26%
60+ 20% 26% 14% 12% 28%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?
CORNYN NORIEGA UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 44% 8%
MEN 53% 40% 7%
WOMEN 43% 48% 9%
DEMOCRATS 11% 82% 7%
REPUBLICANS 81% 13% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 45% 10%
18-29 43% 49% 8%
30-44 53% 38% 9%
45-59 51% 42% 7%
60+ 45% 48% 7%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
ALL 37% 63%
MEN 41% 59%
WOMEN 33% 67%
DEMOCRATS 5% 95%
REPUBLICANS 68% 32%
INDEPENDENTS 31% 69%
18-29 31% 69%
30-44 42% 58%
45-59 40% 60%
60+ 36% 64%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 22% 29% 21% 18% 10%
MEN 25% 33% 18% 16% 8%
WOMEN 19% 25% 24% 20% 12%
DEMOCRATS 7% 18% 36% 31% 8%
REPUBLICANS 33% 37% 11% 10% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 23% 31% 18% 15% 13%
18-29 17% 23% 25% 22% 13%
30-44 26% 34% 17% 14% 9%
45-59 23% 30% 20% 17% 10%
60+ 19% 27% 23% 20% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 17% 21% 19% 18% 25%
MEN 15% 18% 23% 22% 22%
WOMEN 19% 24% 15% 14% 28%
DEMOCRATS 31% 34% 10% 8% 17%
REPUBLICANS 5% 8% 28% 27% 32%
INDEPENDENTS 19% 24% 17% 16% 24%
18-29 21% 25% 15% 14% 25%
30-44 14% 17% 23% 22% 24%
45-59 15% 19% 21% 19% 26%
60+ 18% 22% 18% 17% 25%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton ? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 15% 21% 24% 23% 17%
MEN 13% 18% 28% 27% 14%
WOMEN 17% 24% 20% 19% 20%
DEMOCRATS 28% 34% 14% 11% 13%
REPUBLICANS 4% 8% 32% 32% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 17% 24% 25% 24% 10%
18-29 17% 23% 21% 19% 20%
30-44 12% 17% 29% 29% 13%
45-59 13% 19% 27% 27% 14%
60+ 18% 24% 19% 18% 21%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 52% 39% 9%
MEN 56% 36% 8%
WOMEN 48% 42% 10%
DEMOCRATS 15% 79% 6%
REPUBLICANS 83% 6% 11%
OTHER 52% 40% 8%
18-29 45% 44% 11%
30-44 59% 34% 7%
45-59 57% 36% 7%
60+ 47% 42% 11%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN CLINTON UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 38% 9%
MEN 58% 35% 7%
WOMEN 48% 41% 11%
DEMOCRATS 16% 79% 5%
REPUBLICANS 84% 5% 11%
OTHER 53% 37% 10%
18-29 46% 42% 10%
30-44 60% 33% 7%
45-59 58% 35% 7%
60+ 47% 41% 12%