Much has been made of the fact that McCain was edging both Obama and Clinton from Bittergate until the Wright news cycle finally stopped.
Shouldn't McCain's numbers have been much higher than the 41-50% range (more consistently 44-46% and Gallup only had McCain hitting 50% four times against either Dem candidate) in GE polling during that time?
The way I see it, in GE polling during that month or so of bad news and bloodletting:
- McCain gets at least 75% of Reps and Rep-leaning Inds when they're asked to make binary decisions ('McCain or Obama?', 'McCain or Clinton?')
PLUS
- He gets about 66% of truly non-leaning Independents because they hate partisan mud fights and gotcha politics [note what's happened in NH, WI, and NM]
PLUS
- A. and roughly 41% of Dem Clinton supporters, in response to the 'McCain or Obama' question,
PLUS
B, and roughly 34% of Dem Obama supporters, in response to the 'McCain or Clinton' question.
So WHY wasn't McCain consistently polling north of 60%, or at least creaming the Dems by fifteen or sixteen points, during that month? What am I missing?
A different way to ask the question would be best posed to MSM types who drone incessantly that 'almost half of Clinton's supporters say they won't vote for Obama in November,' is "then why hasn't that shown up, just as significantly, in McCain's numbers in GE polling?"
If there's not something obvious that I've missed, McCain's support is both narrow and shallow.