I'm saying it here and now. Obama will crush McCain in November. I think this will be a Reagan Vs. Carter type of blow out, and possibly an end to the right's stranglehold on our ideas and the direction of the country. Below are my seventeen reasons that Obama crushes McCain.
1. Change - This is a change election. Hillary’s biggest mistake was underestimating how badly people want change, even republicans. McCain is the antithesis of change, and that will become more and more apparent as Obama and McCain campaign head to head.
2. Stamina – Age is a factor. I admit that the last month has looked like it sapped some of Obama’s energy, but now that Hillary is mathematically eliminated (she was, in all but the most forgiving scenarios, eliminated a month ago or more. Let’s say North Carolina was the last nail in the coffin,) He will expend much less energy campaigning against her. He will instead be focused on finishing the plan for his general election campaign against McCain. His visibility will drop for a couple of weeks. He will not disappear from the trail, but will be getting more rest and letting his surrogates do more of the legwork. Once Hillary officially drops out (at the latest, by June), McCain will have to cover more electoral ground than any republican in the last 30 years. Obama will not only win the normal democratic states, but he has put many additional states in play. McCain will have to spend a lot more money and time than previous campaigns, and he will become tired, grumpy, and much less energetic on the trail. Next to video of Obama playing basketball with college players, there will be McCain looking tired and sometimes confused. Vitality sells presidents. McCain has none, Obama has tons.
3. The Clintons – The Clintons, once they have accepted that Hillary will not be the nominee, will switch gears and campaign hard for Obama. She will urge her followers to get behind Obama, and most grudgingly will. The Clintons legacy depends on how they react to this loss. And their income depends on their legacy (Good paying lectures from sour grapes speakers are less abundant than ones from prominent people who helped their party)
4. Clintons political backers – Again, once they have accepted defeat, they will realize that their future employment will still be within the democratic party, and that democratic party will be lead by Barack Obama. They will want to be at the table with Barack, because if they are not, and if Obama has a successful presidency, they will fall out of favor with democratic candidates who follow Obama’s method and use Obama’s infrastructure.
5. Ground game – Barack Obama has done a better job at activating the grass roots organizers than any candidate in years. This will be very important in key states and swing states. McCain seems to have inspired very few people on the GOP side, and this will hurt him in getting out the vote.
6. Fundraising – This is closely related to the ground game. Obama, at last count, has had about 1.5 million small dollar donors. These donors have put the old money machines to shame this cycle, and they will keep contributing until McCain is defeated as long as Obama continues to honor them.
7. Race – Race will be an issue, but in a way that will surprise many people. It has been clear that the Clintons use of race, though persistent, has been a loser. McCain will play a lot of cards against Obama, but I don’t believe that he will embrace the race card to the level that Obama’s fellow democratic opponent has. No one wants to be seen as the last racist in standing in the way of our first black president, and if McCain uses race and loses, he’ll be the poster child for the old racial ways.
8. The dirt is out there – Unless new dirty laundry comes to light, Obama has apparently weathered successfully the Reverend Wright controversy, Rezko, his drug use as a kid, etc... He has addressed these head on, and in the end I think it has made him look more honest and more presidential.
9. Reverend Wright, part II – Just since the NC and Indiana primaries alone, the crazy ass fundie preachers who McCain has sought out endorsements from have gotten much more scrutiny. McCain cannot afford to bring up Wright at the expense of having Rev. Hagee, Parsley, and even the departed Jerry Falwell’s words and endorsements used against him.
10. William Ayers – They have tried to tie this former Weather Underground member to Obama. It hasn’t worked, and it now appears that Obama supporters have dug up tape of McCain whole heartedly embracing G. Gordon Liddy, a main figure in Watergate and unrepentant ultra right wing radical. While Obama served on a charity board with Ayers, he’s never sought or accepted approval of, or any form of a relationship with him. McCain is in much deeper with Liddy.
11. George W. Bush – McCain once opposed, rightfully so, many of W’s policies. He now is embracing them as his platform. Once people stop being distracted by Hillary, they will be repulsed by the idea of continuing W’s ideas. With an approval level of 28%, Bush will be a boat anchor that McCain can’t get off his neck in time for the election.
12. The economy – Bush has mishandled the economy in a historic way. McCain has repeatedly said he plans to follow Bush’s plan’s and policies. Even though McCain is now saying he never said that, we have YouTube showing that he did, and every time he denies saying it, links to video of him saying it pop up everywhere.
13. Views on government – While there remain many anti or small government advocates, people are now looking at the results of how the GOP handles government when they are unopposed. Graft, corruption, poor planning, ignorance, cronyism, and catastrophic handling of both the war and things like hurricane Katrina have shown people exactly how GOP ideas play out in reality, as opposed to how dandy they sound when being propped up by conservative think tank "Elites". I believe people are more receptive now to the idea that "Democratic" good government is better than GOP "small" government.
14. Voter turnout – Even before the GOP had a presumptive nominee, democrats were crushing republicans in registering new voters. Whether the new voters are for Hillary or Barack, come November they will all be democrats.
15. Enthusiasm – Has ANYONE seen any enthusiasm for McCain? Even on the GOP side, he seems to have failed to rally the troops so far. While I think most of the GOP faithful will come out and vote for him, occasionally political engaged people who identify as republicans will not come out with the vigor that the democrats will. Even just looking at Obama’s numbers, he handily crushed all the GOP candidates turn out in the primaries. The mood is not on the GOP side, they are seen as eventual losers at this point, and people want to be on the winners side.
16. History – Many folks will want to be a part of electing the first African American in United States history. They will want to be seen as folks who helped turn the page on the past , not held on to the past.
17. The McCain Vs. Obama Debates – I know I’m jumping ahead a bit, but I think Obama will look more youthful, coherent, and charismatic once he and McCain are sitting in front of some media blowhard like Tim Russert. McCain's "awe schucks" demeanor will appear phony next to Obama.
So, take a deep breath and relax a minute. Then find a way to help the Obama campaign. Make a contribution, sign up to volunteer, or talk to your friends. Nothing is a given if we take this chance for granted.