I have noticed that people are very much underestimating the voting totals in the remaining states. So lets look at the likely voting numbers and the popular vote margins from these states for the remaining six states. Rather than considering Kerry's 2004 totals, I will look at current registered voters and past turnout in these states. I get the results off the SecState or Board of elections page from these states.
First consider PA, which was a closed primary:
PA(Closed):
Registered Dems: 4.2M
Turnout: 2.3 M
Turnout %: 55%
Pennsylvania has not been known to be a high turnout state historically, yet 55% turned out for the primary this year.
WV(Semi-Open):
Registered Dems: 660K
Registered Independents:156K
West Virginia has a history of high turnout in primaries. Between 1984-1996, every Presidential year (also Gov races) has turnout over 50%. So let us say 55% of Dems and 30% of Independents vote.
The other thing to note is that John Edwards will be on the ballot in West Virginia. In similar demographics (SE Ohio), Edwards took as much as 5-6% of the vote.
Projected turnout: 410K
Projected results: C-65 O-31 E-4
Projected Clinton margin: 140K
KY(Closed):
Registered Dems: 1.63M
Kentucky voter turnout has historically been low. Turnouts for competitive Governor primaries have been around 20%. Even for Presidential primaries in 1984-1992, turnout barely exceeded 30%. I will predict turnout at 43% this year.
Again, John Edwards will be on the ballot in Kentucky, as will Uncommitted. I do believe that Obama will do better in Kentucky than he will in West Virginia, with Edwards/Uncommitted taking 4%.
Projected turnout: 700K
Projected results: C-62 O-34 E-4
Projected Clinton margin: 196K
OR(Closed):
Registered Dems: 800K (as of March), lets assume 850K
Voter turnout for competitive primaries in 1984-1992 were all well above 50%, and that was before vote my mail kicked in. After vote by mail kicked in, the primaries in other years were close to 50%. This augers for a super huge turnout this year. 200K ballots have already been received in Oregon. My guess is that turnout could be at 75-80% in Oregon.
Obama would have won Oregon by 10% last week, IMO. My guess is now that is closer to 20%. This state is very friendly to Obama, and my guess is that many soft Clinton supporters and undecideds are going to rally around Obama.
Projected turnout: 650K
Projected results: O-57 C-42
Projected Clinton margin: -97K
So Clinton will pick up 239K votes in these three contests, reducing Obama's margin to about 470K votes.
I'll look at PR, MT, and SD at a later time.