As some of you know, I am trying to initiate a voter registration drive in Mississippi. It's a daunting task organizing everything, with all the research that comes with it, but I think it will be very rewarding.
Today, it looks like I have found what I term a "Volunteer Director," someone who can act as a point person to distribute necessary materials.
As of today, I have five volunteers scheduled, but I am in need of more. It would be awesome to have 50. The first round of voter registration will take place in the Gulf Coast area - Gulfport / Biloxi / Pascagoula. It will take place during the last weekend of June and the first weekend of July. It may actually be smaller than originally intended, but that's fine because this is my very first effort at organizing such a drive.
As far as places to register new voters, I have compiled a dense list of churches, grocery stores, colleges, beauty salons, and even gay bars (Yes they do have gay bars in Mississippi).
What I would really like would be if people here at Kos would be willing to donate some buttons or signs? The buttons are important. I called the main Obama office and it appears they don't have anything. All I have is one sign and it's in Spanish, so I don't think that's going to help much in Mississippi. I also need pens and clipboards, but I don't imagine that would be too tough to come by.
I also found out that the Obama campaign hasn't opened any campaign offices in Mississippi as of yet, so it's really tough to get Obama materials there - which is why I am asking for help.
This is all very exciting for me. To have people willing to help out with voter registration along the Gulf Coast is meaningful and significant. If you live in the area, I hope you can donate some time.
Let's not forget that the latest Rasmussen poll had Obama trailing McCain 50% to 44%. There were no cross-tabs, except Ras did mention that 36% of the sample were African American.
Therefore, one credible estimation of the cross-tabs would look like this:
Obama McCain Und./Other
White 61% 18% 76% 6%
Black 36% 88% 5% 7%
Other 3% 38% 56% 6%
Which results in:
Obama 43.8% (44%)
McCain 49.84% (50%)
Other 6.36% (6%)
So, as we can clearly see, with improved Democratic turnout for Obama, Mississippi is clearly winnable.
I know there are some who feel that perhaps our resources would be better spent in other areas like Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio. But there is something people need to understand about Mississippi.
First, let's discuss the large African American community in Mississippi. Mississippi is 38% African American at the present time. As of now, Mississippi has a population of roughly 2,938,000 people. 38% of that figure is 1,116,440. Around 71% of that figure are eligible to vote. That makes 792,672. I believe that through significant outreach, registration of new voters in every corner of Mississippi, constant canvassing and GOTV efforts, that we can get 85% of the 792,672 to vote and that 95% will vote for Obama.
85% of 792,672 is 673,772. 95% of 673,772 is 640,043 votes for Obama. Add to that the remaining votes Obama is poised to receive and you have yourself an Obama upset of historic proportions.
To put this in perspective, in 2004, George W. Bush, carrying a 60% approval rating in Mississippi at the time, defeated John Kerry 684,981 votes to 458,094 votes.
My prediction is that Obama will defeat McCain in Mississippi 755,043 to 732,866 votes. Call me crazy, but this scenario sounds totally possible. One need only look to the recent example of Indiana to see the extreme power of the African American community when it stands behind a candidate with 80 to 90% turnout.