Politics is bizarre. Issues and gaffes that ostensibly favor one party often favor the other in unexpected ways. The foremost example of this in my mind was when Senator Clinton cried before New Hampshire, a moment that almost shifted the entire primary in her favor while it was simultaneously being panned on cable news as the death of her campaign.
I think we may have another example of an unexpected effect from Michelle Obama's "very proud" moment.
ABC recently conducted preliminary polling on the two potential first ladies:
Forty-eight percent of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably, vs. 39 percent for McCain, a 9-point Obama advantage. Slightly more, though, also view Obama unfavorably – 29 percent vs. McCain's 25 percent.
What is interesting about these numbers are that the mainstream narrative is that Michelle Obama is attempting to reintroduce herself to the country with a softer image. As the New York Times wrote last week:
Now her husband’s presidential campaign is giving her image a subtle makeover, with a new speech in the works to emphasize her humble roots and a tough new chief of staff. On Wednesday, Mrs. Obama will do a guest turn on "The View," the daytime talk show on ABC, with an eye toward softening her reputation.
But does this carry weight? Michelle Obama's numbers appear, even accounting for the greater numbers of undecideds, to be out pacing those of her husband's. Indeed, the simplest conclusion to draw from the ABC poll numbers is that the "reintroduction" of Michele Obama has nothing to with a reintroduction -- the Obama campaign is simply trying to push her front and center because she's kicking the McCain campaign's ass.
And here is where politics gets bizarre. I have to imagine that people outside of the wonk-world that we inhabit only know three things about Michelle Obama: she's hot, she dresses phenomenally, and she made the comments about not always being proud of her country.
So why her stellar numbers? I'm wondering if it's not due primarily to her proud comments, at face value and not a byproduct of the Republican attacks. Over the last two weeks we've seen John McCain make statements about not being proud at least four different times. Indeed, he has gone out of his way to make the point that there have been portions in his life when he wasn't proud.
If you look for the simplest conclusion in this mess, taking into account the poll numbers and McCain's tactics, you're left with the possibility that Michelle Obama may have been actually ahead the curve with her "gaffe." It's likely that Ms. Obama may have slipped into attracting a substantial number of independent voters who are disgusted with the direction of the country and are looking for a leader to voice that opinion. The simplest answer in this bizarre fascinating slog-fest is that in 2008, the country is actually seeking politicians to admit the possibility that our country has at times fell from grace.
Strange.