4 years ago today, according to Electoral-vote, John Kerry was easily defeating George Bush, 300-238. Let's take a closer look at that map vs. the actual results of what happened that year to see why we shouldn't be complacent and we shouldn't believe in polls!
The most obvious state that jumps out is Ohio. Polls average then: Kerry 49%, Bush 43%. Result? Bush 51%, Kerry 49%.
Florida: 6/25/04: Kerry 47%, Bush 46%. Election: Bush 52%, Kerry 47%.
Back then we thought New Mexico was in the bag, 50% to 43%. Today's poll average would lead you to believe the same thing. Yet Bush won the state 50% to 49%.
Virginia was almost tied 4 years ago today, and Bush won the state by 9%.
What happened between 6/25/04 and November? Besides the whole swiftboat thing, complancency set in. People said, ok, Kerry's got it, we can sit back and watch the show, as many people here are saying about Obama. The bottom line is: DO NOT BE COMPLACENT. Do not underestimate the RNC. Don't even underestimate McCain! Obama will only win if we never stop fighting for him.