Obama strategists will now be asked to bury their grievances and put Clinton on the ticket. They will be told it's the smart thing to do. It's not, and here's why.
Now that Senator Clinton is on the brink of "graciously" dropping out of this race, her camp is raising all the right signals to raise her standing as a credible VP nominee. The Clinton-for-VP supporters have lots of great talking points. Some are:
1- She gets more white, middle-class voters
2- She brings back the loyal Clinton segments (older women)
3- She helps carry important swing states, largely on the support of these segments. These are crucial industrial Midwest states, and no Democrat has won the presidency in recent history without their support.
At the same time as the Clinton camp stakes its claim, Obama strategists can reflect on their own clear, demonstrated electoral weaknesses. Obama's path to the Presidency is by no means guaranteed, and in fact, is plagued with many obstacles. Among them are the fact that he is likely to lose the industrial Midwest, has a problem with working whites, can’t bring Hispanics on board, and is possibly weakened by various mini-flaps including the Wright problem, and others.
The Obama people are smart, and will now be asked to bury old grievances, swallow their anger, and partner with Clinton to win. Unfortunately, this tactic misses the point. Even a smart Obama strategist SHOULD NOT select Clinton. Here’s why.
Putting Clinton on the ticket will not bring working whites back on board. They will see McCain as a "moderate" alternative. If West Virginia Democrats went for Hillary, this does not mean the state will go to Obama in a general election. In fact, Obama will lose the state regardless of whom he puts on the ticket. With him on top of the ticket, those voters will not change their minds. Neither Clinton nor Edwards nor anyone else can change this dynamic.
Putting Clinton on the ticket will raise Obama’s percentages among older white women only marginally in a general election. The notion that loyal Clinton supporters will now vote for McCain is largely a fallacy. They will not vote for an anti-abortion, pro-war Republican, in any possible scenario. Previous hard-fought primaries have had the same issues, and in the end, have had the same results. Democratic women will have no place else to go. While this seems like a harsh statement to make, it is, in fact, the case. At best, putting Clinton on the ticket will slightly improve Obama’s position among these voters, but will not put him over the top in most of the Midwestern swing states.
The Obama campaign will now be asked to make possibly the most important decision of the campaign. They will make this decision rationally, without regard to the scars of the primaries. They will look at the November map, and will seek to answer this question: Which selection can help us realign this map? In light of Obama’s real electoral weaknesses, what new states can we put into play? There are several. They are in the West. They have large Hispanic populations. And unlike the working white voters of the Midwestern industrial states, Midwestern Hispanics can be brought along, if they are given a candidate to support. Bill Richardson is that candidate.
Why Bill Richardson? He is, of course, a solid choice based on all metrics. He has great foreign policy experience. He was a respected member of the previous Clinton Administration. He would add gravitas, and his biggest problem as a Presidential candidate, his perceived lack of charisma, would now work in his favor in the VP slot. He would not outshine Obama, and would complement him nicely. In addition to all these real qualifications, Richardson would be able to bring a big segment in a way no other politician can. Hispanics vote along ethnic lines, and are one of the few segments out there which are both "in play" and also winnable by Obama. Putting Richardson on the ticket brings New Mexico, guarantees California, and brings Texas. A Democrat who takes Texas wins the country, in a landslide.
The realignment we seek is there for the taking, if Obama strategists can see past today’s problems, and look to surmount the problems which await them in the fall.