I just read yesterday's SUSA poll numbers for Virginia. Pollster.com summarizes them as follows:
A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 49% to 47%.
Just a month ago, Obama led McCain by 7 points in the state.
Reading this, you might think that McCain was doing well in the state. You would be wrong. More below.
It all comes down to the crosstabs, of course, and looking at the ones for this poll reveals that Obama's support is hugely underestimated. The SUSA poll used African Americans as 18% of its sample, and Obama won these voters 74-25. By any objective measure, these numbers grossly underestimate his African American support. In 2004, African Americans were 21% of the voters in Virginia, and voted for Kerry over Bush 87-12. So does anyone think that Obama will bring out fewer African American voters than Kerry and that fewer African Americans will vote for him?
Simply adjusting the SUSA African American voter numbers (both in quantity and percentage) to be equivalent to Kerry's in 2004 increases Obama's lead by about 7 points to a 9 point lead (correct me if my numbers are wrong).
And It's hard to believe that Obama won't increase African American turnout above that of what Kerry produced in 2004. So unless, there's something else off in the SUSA poll that works against Obama, this poll is really indicative of a double digit Obama lead.