It would be very tempting for some Clinton supporters to walk away from this primary feeling that the Democratic nomination was somehow stolen from her. We've seen surrogates like Terry McCaullife insist repeatedly that Hillary Clinton "won the popular vote." Mr. McCaullife even went so far as to introduce Senator Clinton as "the next President of the United States" on Tuesday just as Barack Obama attained the necessary number of delegates to clinch the nomination.
What this diary seeks to do is put all of Senator Clinton's supporters' minds at ease and to reassure them that Senator Obama did not only win the delegate count, but also the popular vote. The statistics I will be using are the absolute most up-to-the-minute ones I could find. This diary is just a trifle lengthy, so if nothing else, I hope people will read the last three paragraphs.
As I've already stated, the main source of discomfort among the supporters of Senator Clinton derives from the Clinton campaign's continued assertion that she "won more votes during a primary than any other candidate in history, Republican or Democrat," (Terry McCaullife, June 4th, 2008). In my humble opinion, the facts or merits of the argument notwithstanding, it seems churlish for McCaullife to keep complaining about the popular vote when the only metric that really mattered all along was the delegate count. Be that as it may, the popular vote is a worthwhile topic and I am happy to discuss it.
First, let's look at what Real Clear Politics considers to be the popular vote total at this time, including the non-binding primary of Florida, along with estimates for the caucuses in Maine, Washington, Nevada, and Iowa:
2008 Democratic Popular Vote - with Florida, and with estimates for IA, NV, ME, WA caucuses
Obama 17,869,542 48.2% Clinton 17,717,698 47.8% Obama +151,844
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Now let's reexamine Terry McCaullife's statement - that Hillary Clinton got more votes during a primary than any other Presidential candidate in history.
What is a vote? Here is how dictionary.com defines the word vote:
- a formal expression of opinion or choice, either positive or negative, made by an individual or body of individuals.
- the means by which such expression is made, as a ballot, ticket, etc.
There are actually more definitions listed, but I think we get the general idea. At its basic notion, a vote is an expression of choice, or in the case of an election, the means by which such expression is made. One of the great sources of confusion in this campaign derives from the dilemma of whether to count the caucus votes in the popular vote metric. Because we can see that caucus votes easily satisfy the definition of what a vote is, caucus votes must be included in the popular vote metric and with as much accuracy as possible. The individuals who voted in caucuses showed up to cast an expression of opinion with regard to the Democratic nominee for President.
Taking the Texas caucus into account, the turnout for which the Texas Democratic party estimated was 1.1 million voters (of which Obama was estimated to have won 616,000 and Clinton 484,000), and still excluding the non-binding primaries that occured in Nebraska, Idaho, Washington, and Michigan - according to the latest totals, we have Obama 18,485,542 Clinton 18,201,698. This translates to Obama +283,844.
Please note that I have included American territories in this metric, such as Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. Although these territories have no voice in the General Election, I feel it is unfair to exclude them as their presence in this race was counted on all along and the people who showed up to vote in their primaries and caucuses knew their votes would contribute to the delegate count. Incidentally, excluding these territories nets Obama an additional 130,000 votes or so.
Now let's take our project a step further count up all the votes. Even the votes from ALL the previously excluded non-binding primaries - Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, and Idaho. Every. Single. Vote.
By going ahead and adding all the non-binding contests - those that took place in Nebraska, Idaho, Washington, and Michigan (Florida was already included), the figures that we arrive at are Obama 18,939,921 Clinton 18,905,484. Obama's lead here is 34,437.
Please note that this metric includes the approximately 30,000 write-in ballots for Obama from Michigan. It would be patently unfair not to include these votes because they easily satisfy the definition of what a vote is.
As of yet, I would estimate that there are still approximately 180,000 votes to be counted. These include provisional and absentee ballots that have not been included in the as of yet uncertified results from Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Montana, and Indiana. Given the predominant trends throughout this primary race with regard to provisionals and/or absentees, it would seem as though Obama is poised to net an additional 36,000 votes, using a conservative estimate. For instance, Obama got approximately 70% of the provisionals in North Carolina and 63% of the provisionals in Ohio, netting an additional 37,000 votes just from the provisional ballots of those two states.
Thus, I am going to make the conservative estimate that Obama will get 60% of the remaining valid provisional votes for a net gain of 36,000 votes in the popular vote count. Therefore, by the time all the votes have been counted, from every single contest that took place, including all caucuses and all primaries (even non-binding ones), the final count will be Obama 19,047,921 Clinton 18,977,484 meaning that Obama will have won the popular vote in the Democratic primary of 2008 by 70,437 votes.
I was going to do a whole spiel about how Operation Chaos muddied the waters somewhat by making it look like Senator Clinton got a lot more votes than she actually did, but what is the point? The contest is over, and as we can clearly see, if every single vote is counted in all of the 58 different contests, Obama wins the popular vote.
I really hope that the Hillary Clinton supporters and advocates out there who are still feeling bruised and upset over this long arduous primary season are helped by the math and logic displayed by this diary. As we all found out from the 2000 elections, there is absolutely nothing worse than trying to move forward and support the winner if one harbors serious doubts as to the legitimacy of the outcome.
So if it helps at all, I urge everyone to repeat after me: "Obama won the most delegates AND the most votes in the Democratic primary race. The outcome of this contest was legitimate and I am going to do everything I can to make sure that a Democrat wins the White House in the Fall."
I also want all the Hillary Clinton supporters out there to know that although I was upset with the Clinton campaign from time to time (and expressed this copiously), I never doubted Hillary's extreme talent, intelligence, and tenacity as she fought her way back time and again from the brink of defeat. And if Hillary Clinton were the nominee, I would have been extremely upset for a while, I'm not going to lie. But after a time, I would have picked myself up, understood the huge stakes we face as a nation (Iraq, Iran, SCOTUS, climate change), realized that Hillary was a hell of a lot better than John McCain, and worked my ass off to get her elected President.
At this point I would also like to pay tribute to idea of Hillary Clinton endeavoring to be the first female President. I know that one of the reasons so many people were so determined to assist her is due to the historic nature of her journey. She shattered the glass ceiling and proved it was possible for this country to embrace a woman as President.
So at this moment, I raise a glass to Senator Clinton for running a bold campaign, and to our nominee Barack Obama - the next President of the United States of America.