The USA finds itself in the uneviable position of possibly having to show Georgia and the world what kind of ally it is. It will likely be unable to bring much to the table.
Georgia has, by any standard, been invaded, as Russia has lanced out of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - the parts of Georgia that claimed autonomy and fought for their freedom - into the country.
The reported capture of the key Georgian city of Gori and the towns of Senaki, Zugdidi and Kurga came despite a top Russian general’s claim earlier Monday that Russia had no plans to enter Georgian territory. By taking Gori, which sits on Georgia’s only east-west highway, Russia can cut off eastern Georgia from the country’s western Black Sea coast.
This is, I should note, according to the Georgians. The Russians deny it. But Russian denials of troop deployments are about as reliable as, well, Georgian offers of peace.
Russia also claims that its state-wide air blitz of Georgia’s infrastructure and its operations on the ground are all necessary steps to win the war. The West denounces this as "disproportionate," which is pretty laughable considering the spine of our offensive strategy is "Shock and Awe." Since World War II, we’ve made a religion of what’s called "asymmetrical warfare" - hitting the enemy by smashing local targets that would diminish his strength, rather than just hitting him square in the nose.
What would be disproportionate would be if Russia does what Bush, the media and many in the West - breathing hard and hankering for another four-color melodrama to distract the American public from the complexities here at home - say they will: Russia has no call to continue sitting on what all the world agrees is Georgian soil.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are one thing. And in my opinion, no matter how the White House wants to veil the excretitious actions of their ally, Georgia, they should pay for their aggression such that they can no longer threaten the people who wanted to be free of their tyranny. They fired the first shots - and at civilians no less, under pretense of peace - and they deserve to be denied what they sought to gain through violence.
Putin’s retort to the West’s accusations of his aggression puts it eloquently:
"Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages," Putin said in Moscow. "And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in their sheds - these leaders must be taken under protection."
I agree. I admit a bit of bias on the behalf of the Ossetians, but after having their rights stripped, their homes burned and their trust betrayed for almost 20 years by the Georgian government, I agree they need justice.
Where I disagree is the implication that regime change is necessary, or that Georgia’s actions demand more punishment than it’s already getting, being trounced out of Ossetia. If Russia acts out of defense of Ossetia, that’s one thing; conquering official Georgian territory and usurping Georgian power is, indeed, just a land grab.
What Russia will do remains a mystery. How the West will respond in that worst-case scenario of Russian tri-colors over Tblisi, Georgia’s capitol, is more certain. It’s positive we’ll be well and truly steamed, but it will likely not be "World War III".
The irony is that it won’t be war with the USA because the USA lacks the strength to do anything significant about it, that strength having been squandered by the very people who think our enemies will not dare challenge our deterrence because we’re too strong.
At the risk of starting a rant against the Neo-Conservatives, I feel I should note that Kristol, Wolfowitz, Perle, Rumsfeld and the whole Neo-Con gang who planned and arrogantly, heedlessly executed Afghanistan and Iraq always brush off warnings of blowback by saying that our enemies won’t dare fight back - be they Iran or some pimply Algerian flown in by a shady Saudi for the purpose of Mesopotamian jihad. "Couldn’t happen," they say, and yet it almost always does.
In this instance, we really can’t do anything against Russia, largely because our high-cost, low-supply military adventurism has left us drained. We could bomb them, but that degree of force projection against an air force like Russias would not only be largely ineffectual, it would cost us some blood and treasure. The bear doesn’t just lie down like Saddam’s two-bit fleet of burnt out MiGs. We’d get hurt.
Our land forces are even less of an option. We could, potentially, fly into Georgia or, if Georgia is crushed by then, into Azerbaijian. But who would we fly in? Any force sizable enough to blunt the Russians is either engaged, exhausted or both thanks to our seven years of constant high-intensity war.
So the USA finds itself in the uneviable position of possibly having to show what kind of ally it is. It will likely be little to bring much to the table.
Considering the vile actions of that ally, that doesn’t bother me much. Its tragic to find our country unable to help a sworn friend. Then again, this could be taken as another lesson in what kinds of friends we should make.