Among the candidates who have been named on various short lists, Sam Nunn is probably the most vilified and despised among the netroots, even moreso than Hagel. There is good reason for this. The 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' was one of the most shameful episodes of the Clinton era, and Nunn's participation earned him a lifetime of scorn. Yet, for this very reason, the possibility of Nunn has been almost completely dismissed. Instead, we get dozens of unrealistically hopeful diaries about Wes Clark, as well as the usual conventional wisdom regarding Bayh and Kaine. The fact of the matter, however, is that the dominant perceptions here are not the same as those held over at Obama HQ. As Obama's reversal on FISA demonstrated, he is not the least bit apprehensive about pissing off the netroots, and with McCain's visible embrace of the Rovian far right, anti-McCain sentiment has become nearly as powerful a motivating force as pro-Obama sentiment (as demonstrated by the Democrats' superb fundraising numbers), giving Obama even less incentive to cater to his base. For this reason, I suspect Nunn is probably more likely than most think, and that sometime this week, we may see a sudden spike in the number of broken cell phones. The question, then, is this: can progressives learn to stop worrying and love the Nunn?
While this is not a 'prediction' (I still think the other short listers are also very real possibilities), there are significant tea leaves that point to Nunn. First, Obama heavily emphasized the anti-proliferation issue during his Berlin speech, an issue for which Nunn is among the world's leading authorities. Obama clearly intends to make this the center of his national security agenda, and though the traditional media continues to pretend that any foreign policy crisis favors McCain, the situation in Georgia and growing concerns over a resurgent Russia will again raise the specter of nuclear war, an issue that could play into Obama's hands while leaving the overly combative McCain vulnerable to the sort of campaign waged against Barry Goldwater in 1960.
Second, Obama has tremendous admiration for Nunn. He specifically chose to take up Nunn-Lugar as his own signature legislation, and his realist approach to foreign policy is clearly modeled on Nunn's. More tellingly, at yesterday's faith forum, when asked who he considered to be the three wisest people he knew, Obama specifically Nunn and Lugar as people he would listen to when it came to major policy decisions.
Finally, there are minor indications, like the focus on national security on the night when the VP is expected to accept the nomination and Dick Lugar's harsh comments about McCain's anti-Russian rhetoric.
But what would Obama expect to gain from picking Nunn? There are obvious liabilities. First, he would piss off many progressives and alienate many within the LGBT community. Second, Nunn's seat on the board of Chevron would make Obama look hypocritical if he continues to attack the oil companies.
Yet, given how Jim Webb has emerged as a darling of the left despite once being a prominent advocate against allowing women to serve in combat, it is likely that a timely mea culpa coupled with some aggressive criticism of McCain could, at the very least, dampen outrage from the left. Recently, he signaled support for a repeal of DADT, and there is little doubt that, by committing to Obama's platform, Nunn would provide an unexpected and powerful boon to LGBT rights advocates.
With that said, the positive case for Nunn looks like this (note: this should not be taken as an endorsement, my personal preference wavers between Biden and Sebelius):
1) Nunn's reputation as a bipartisan problem solver would bolster Obama's efforts to portray himself in a similar light. And unlike someone like Hagel, Nunn would allow Obama to do this while still preserving a solidly pro-choice ticket.
2) Nunn is one of the few established foreign policy giants who opposed Bush's invasion of Iraq. As CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, he would also be able to highlight Obama's own foreign policy accomplishments.
3) Despite his bipartisan reputation, Nunn is a ruthless and unapologetic fighter. He is revered by the Beltway media, and he is one of the few potential VPs who could get away with portraying McCain as a foreign policy lightweight. With the exception of Biden, none of the other 'short listers' are as well-equipped for the attack dog role.
4) Given his age (he's 69), Nunn does not have any further ambitions. This would ensure that we avoid a Kerry/Edwards or Gore/Lieberman situation where the bottom half of the ticket has major reservations about acting as a partisan hitman. It would also leave the nomination open for 2016 when the Democrats will have a very impressive field of rising stars.
5) Nunn's reputation, professional relationships, and personal friendships would likely secure a wide range of endorsements from moderate independents and foreign policy realists, including Colin Powell, Chuck Hagel, Michael Bloomberg, and possibly even Dick Lugar. Yet, at the same time, Nunn would not conflict heavily with Obama's own platform.
Most of all, however, Nunn would reassure older voters about the competence and credibility of the ticket. As Michael Crowley wrote recently:
He is the Washington establishment's archetype of a vice president: undeniably qualified, yet low-key and uninterested in personal glory. He is, in many ways, what Dick Cheney promised to be before it grew evident that Cheney had lost his marbles. And, this year, Nunn would make more sense than ever, bringing to the ticket several vital qualities that Obama could use: impeccable national-security credentials, an air of seasoned gravitas, a Southern drawl that is anything but "elitist."
Of course, the on-paper case for Nunn will not be enough to sway most progressives, and if Obama takes this route, he will need to quickly reassure his supporters that he isn't drifting toward the amoral abyss of the DLC. Yet, this may not be as difficult as many assume. Where the DLC eventually transformed into a platform for neoconservatives, an Obama/Nunn ticket would represent a consensus rejection of the GOP's radical foreign policy platform in a way that, say, Obama/Bayh would not. Nunn may not be able to endear himself to the left, but if he were to use his acceptance speech to offer up neoconservatism's head on a platter, it would certainly be a start. As such, while Nunn is no progressive's first choice, you should refrain from throwing your cell phone against the wall if his name shows up in your inbox. While it may not be the netroots dream ticket, it may very well be the stuff of Republican nightmares.