One of the perks of being in person at an event like the Big Tent and the DNC Convention in general is getting access to some really cool events you can't get to anywhere else. No, I'm not talking about the after-parties; those actually tend to be fairly lame, imho. I'm talking about the really informative morning and afternoon sessions where activists have the opportunity to learn things you can't get elsewhere.
Today, the New Leaders Council (not in any way affiliated with the odious DLC) put together a lunch meeting where a pollster from DemocracyCorps (Greenberg) presented for the first time their latest Mountain West polling data, just made available here on their site (PDF only). It's an awesome wealth of material that confirms what most of us DFH bloggers have been saying for a long time: Obama is our best candidate with great coattails; there is no "Hispanic" problem; the best way to win swing voters is to play to progressive strengths; and John McCain has a serious uphill road to hew in the Mountain West.
If you don't live in the Mountain West and think this is just a regional issue, think again. It's the future of the Democratic Party. The Mountain West is where Obama can win the Presidency. It is where the DNC is holding its convention--for a reason. It is where we're poised to pick up a ton of congressional seats and a couple of Senate seats. And if your district's neighborhood mirrors those of the Mountain West districts in question, you can learn a lot from these results, as many of them will be exactly in line with many of these findings. The districts surveyed were AZ-1, AZ-3, AZ-5, AZ-8, CO-4, ID-1, MT-AL, NV-2, NV-3, NM-1, NM-AL. Eight of these are held by Republicans and two by Democrats, but all are battleground, traditionally Republican districts. And the findings are super cool.
Some key points:
- Whereas congressional candidates in these districts have had to run away from the previous Democratic nominees, Obama's message of change as well as Obama himself are strong net positives, especially among Independents. While Kerry and Gore lost these districts by an average of 16 points, Obama trails by only 5. In other words, Obama has some serious coattails here.
- McCain underperforms Bush by a whole 10 points. His weakness is especially pronounced with a few core Republican demographics, including the "militia vote" (those who own 10 or more guns), 11% of whom are planning to support a third candidate.
- In 2000 and 2004, Congressional Democratic Candidates underperformed the Presidential candidate in these districts; now, they are actually poised to do better. This is not due to any particular weakness on Obama's part (as seen above), but rather due to the fact that voters are waking up to the fact that their Republican representatives are a major part of the problem in Washington.
- In fact, Republican incumbents in these districts have a 43% disapproval rating with only 38% approval, while the two Democrats have a 43% approval rating compared with 32% disapproval.
- While the economy is the single most important issue across the board, Iraq is a more important issue in the mountain west than in the rest of the country--but it has to be talked about less in terms of lives lost than in terms of damage done to the economy and in the context of wasteful government spending. Also, while the economy cuts across bi-partisan lines, talking about Iraq is especially useful in energizing the Democratic base.
- Voters are seriously pissed: 74% say that the country is on the wrong track
- Once again, Obama does not have a "Hispanic problem." In fact, Obama every so slightly better among Hispanics than the Congressional Democratic candidates. Obama is absolutely crushing McCain by a margin of 63%-28%.
- The historic congressional vote numbers are shocking. In 2000, Republican incumbents and candidates dominated Democrats 62%-37%. Those numbers remained essentially the same in 2004, at 61%-38%. But in 2006, that margin dropped to just 6 points--and today in 2008 it has fallen well within the margin of error to just two points (47%-45%). That big a shift is simply incredible.
- Energy is a problem in these districts--but there is a shocking conclusion to be drawn. Including messaging supporting limited drilling does no better overall for Democrats than not included support for drilling. Those findings, especially if backed up by future research, have enormous implications. Including the drilling message helps swing Republicans to our side, but it decreases enthusiasm among key segments of the progressive base. Essentially, it's a wash. So unless you're trying to court major numbers of Republican voters in the midwest, it doesn't really do much good to go against commonsense policy and your own principles in support of drilling. What does work is consistently attacking the Republican candidate for being the pocket of big oil. I asked specifically about Udall's own experiences regarding drilling, and the presenter basically said that Udall had made a mistake in not attacking Schaffer more forcefully on his ties to big oil, but that given the numbers of Republicans he was losing based on the issue, he made a calculated decision to staunch the bleeding. He wouldn't say if that was a good or bad idea in the long run.
- While immigration and taxes are the most potent arguments Republicans can use against Democrats in these areas, they don't begin to approach the top of the list of issues most important to voters overall.
- The best way to move swing voters is by appealing to the progressive base and using Obama's message of change. End of story. Every swing group from independents to evangelicals to married women to everyone in between, supports the Democratic congressional candidate in far larger numbers when Obama's progressive "change" message is given to them in advance.
- "Working class voters" have no problem with Obama: he wins voters making under $50K household income by a whopping 35-point margin. Congressional Democratic candidates have a lot of room to improve here, as they only win by 13 points among the same demographic. Increase the lead among these voters, and a competitive race will turn into a comfortable Democratic victory.
There's a lot more where all that came from in the PDF: it's well worth a detailed look.
No matter what the media say, the polling is clear: things are looking up for Democrats, and we have a chance to seriously turn the tables on the GOP in some traditionally very Republican territory. Obama is a great candidate with no Hispanic problem, and the issues align with us such that both Obama and our Congressional candidates should be able to succeed in the current political environment.
Here's hoping the traditional media pay some attention at long last.