Many of you have seen the daily Gallup which shows Obama up by 6%. What some don't know is that the Gallup is a rolling average of the three past days. While this helps to stabilize numbers and brings down the MOE, it takes longer for changes to show up. That said, you can do some number crunching to see what kind of numbers Obama has been putting in since the convention started.
I decided to take yesterdays average 45-44 favoring Obama, and see what type of numbers it would take to move them to todays showing of 48-42. The answer to my amazement is Obama:54 to McCain:38. Obama had a huge day of polling on Wednesday which means that people liked what they heard on Tuesday. Yes, Hillary helped, but we have a few more days of convention left and if the next couple of days poll like yesterday did, Obama may get that +16 bounce that the Republicans were talking about.
Before we can put any faith in this number, we will need to see if it is backed up by the second day of polling. But, if Obama's numbers come across this strong tomorrow, I'm gonna dance a jig. Oh and the Bounce will be official.
Oh yeah, I don't trust polls, but I do trust trends.
Found this on 538 posted by Adam or Racht on Kos
8.20 45-44
8.21 45-44
8.22 48-44
8.23 42-47
8.24 45-45
8.25 45-46
8.26 45-41
8.27 54-39