Wow. As David Gergen just pointed out, this is a big gamble. And big gambles sometime lose big. This is one those--a "what were you thinking," "gee, it seemed like a good idea at the time" gambles. Twenty-four hours ago, I thought the race was up for grabs. Now I think the only question is how big will Obama's margin of victory be?
The Palin pick is a Hail Mary pass, full-court heave, empty-net gamble all rolled into one. The McCain campaign seems so desperate to keep the media coverage focused on them after the Democratic convention and Obama's transcendent speech, that they're willing to toss aside the one angle of attack that demonstrated any effectiveness. In so doing, they've opened up a Pandora's box they won't be able to close.
As Gergen pointed out, if you think, as John Mccain does, that the fight against terrorism is THE issue of the campaign, how do you pick someone who as recently as two years ago was mayor of a town of 6,000 to stand a heartbeat away from the Presidency? She makes Obama look like an elder statesman (and forget about Biden). McCain likes to say he's a maverick, and yet he has completely caved to the religious right / hardcore conservative wing of his party. NPR reported yesterday that the Republicans have adopted a platform that leaves out planks McCain wanted on abortion, alternative energy, etc. So here are two themes Obama & his surrogates can jump on right away. 1.) McCain makes bad decisions (does anyone really think Palin is ready to be President?) and 2.) How can McCain change Washington when he can't even change his own party?
Choosing Palin is such a blatant attempt to woo disaffected Hillary voters and pry women voters away from the Dems that I think it will backfire big time. For one thing, it's so transparent that it's patronizing. One of the compelling things about Hillary's candidacy was that she was so obviously qualified to be President--a lifetime in Democratic politics, a successful legal career, eight years in the US Senate. That is why so many people, of both genders, flocked to her candidacy. There is simply no way Palin even begins to compare to Hillary. Throw in her hard-right positions on the issues and I think I any votes she does attract will be more than offset by independents and others who abandon a GOP ticket that insults their intelligence.
Finally, Palin comes with all sorts of baggage. She's under an ethics investigation for abuse of power (sounds like change to me!). She apparently used to be a big Buchanan supporter (according to Chuck Todd), she's a creationist. In short, she's a Republican ideologue at a time when the country is sick of Republican ideologues. And her own age and lack of inexperience will only highlight issues of McCain's age & health.
On one of cable news shows, someone said they thought this signaled that Steve Schmidt was going to try to run a "base" election similar to 2004. The Palin pick, he said, would energize the Republican base and rally conservatives. I think that's right. And I also think it is a classic case of fighting the last war. That strategy worked in 2004 because Bush was still somewhat popular and the memory of 9/11 still fresh. All they had to do was knock down Kerry, who helped by running one of the most lackluster campaigns in history (& still nearly won). 2008 is not 2004 & from the beginning Obama's people have been working to change the map completely. The base may keep McCain & the GOP from being pulverized and limit the down-ticket damage, but they will not deliver the election this time. Like the "elitist" & "celebrity" memes, this pick will blow up in McCain's face like an ACME missile in Wile E. Coyote's hands.
In the short term this may play well with the media. But what Obama has figured out, that McCain hasn't, is that this campaign won't be won in the short term and it won't be won in the media. This morning, I thought the election would resemble 1980, with the good guys winning this time--a close race until the end with all the late movement going to the outsider promising change, leading to a sizable margin. Now I wonder if it won't be more like 1984.
Last night Obama hit the cover off the ball, à la Roy Hobbs in "The Natural." Today, McCain stepped up to the plate and whiffed on three pitches. Simple as that.