From this slightly detached view over here in the UK, it's clear to me what this VP-nominee selection signals where the McCain camp are going with this and what it possibly might mean for the Obama-Biden campaign.
My distance and obvious ignorance as a foreigner might insulate me from some concern-flames (hopefully), but make no mistake, this seems an extremely cunning political pick from the top drawer of media manipulation.
The inexperience/celebrity phase of the GOP campaign has done its job over the summer which was to turn the attention and scrutiny on Obama, drag him down in the polls and to pose the question 'Who is he?'. But now, it's been taken off the table which suggests its only part of the bigger plan was to put Obama on the table and raise doubts, not to be the real story. So where to from here?
For undecideds, my hunch is that Governor Palin is going to be heavily used in television campaigning but in a way that reduces direct exposure to the political press. She is, in effect, a large part of John McCain's ground and air campaign. Expect glowing and glossy coverage with an emphasis on photo and video opportunities that involve doing; portraying her as a clean-faced pioneer woman of salt-of-the-earth action, supposedly untainted by Washington and on top of that, a working mother. Willing to get her hands dirty as opposed to Obama's bookishness and Biden's old-school insider image...
What's more, judging from their obvious discomfort together on the stump, I also expect to see pairings in soft TV opportunities that flatter to their strengths, strongly contrasting with Obama/Biden who will appear as just more politicians: McCain/Palin as Regis and Kelly.
Because of early voting in Ohio (amongst other states) and the desire to quash as much direct fundraising over September for Obama; starting Monday my bet is that the GOP is now going to go swiftly in with the corruption/untrustworthy theme against Obama putting that against the supposed McCain maverickyness and Palin's kicking out the bums in her home state. They're now going to run McCain and Palin as the outsiders.
Sarah Palin might be the bait for many things, but just as importantly, she's the bait for curious viewers for the convention starting on Monday where I suspect they'll start rolling this out. As well as raising doubts about integrity, they'll want to try and cut him off at the knees. In other words, who is going to want to hand over money to a crook and an insider?
Expect the Rezko and Bill Ayres theme to be cranked up. Obama no longer the rube; it won't wash. They know that, we know that. He's going to be painted as a Chicago pol, knee-deep in dodgy deals and questionable friends. They're doing that already but it seems as though it really hasn't taken off at a national level yet. Expect either revelations, leaks or a substantial new ad campaign which used the earlier 527 stuff about Ayres to focus-group reactions.
And later, the Reverend Wright stuff will be rolled out later in the campaign but in a far more intense way, in a way that ties Obama down to pull out yet another speech. No-one cares that it's been done before, because they'll twist it into something far more evil. They may even hold something really sinister back until about 3-4 days out from polling day, giving little time to react and change the play.
This VP pick is a clear warning of what's to come; where the McCain campaign is going to attempt to draw the contrast, in my view. Motherhood and gunslinger against two politicians. Therein lies its superficial cleverness and potential pitfalls for the Obama campaign; not the security/experience question but the trust issue. They've been laying the bed for this for the last six months with all the smear emails, not the specifics of them, but the overarching theme that he's got something — it could be anything — to hide.
Of course, I could be completely wrong. ;)