A problem with Palin is that while yes it may fire up the religious conservative base it does not do much more for Mc Cain. He was struggling in that area for a reason. His "maverick" role of not always agreeing with his party which really translate to him filing in suit with the libertarian brand of conservatism in AZ (which is next to me here in Los Angeles). Well whatever the narrative is this just adds to the "phony" do-what-ever-it-takes-to-win attitude that he just makes too obvious.
Not that Obama doesn't do it such as with FISA but we are talking about winning the presidency here. I may disagree but this is not even a lesser evil argument for me. Coming from a grandfather who was a farmer in minnesota who was part of the socalist group, and being raised by a grandmother who was a social worker for 30 years, I know Obama identifies with my views and beliefs for this country. Being a liberal is not some scary thing to be ashamed of. Barack is more straight forward in identifying with his views and does his best given being a politician. He gives me the sense that he is not just another politician trying to win, he actually wants to help others in need. Its only the main gist of his message.
My problem with Mc Cain and his pick is he just doesn't hide it. It is so bad I can even hear the average tuned in co-worker (I work mostly with women) say how fake and calculating it is.
While I'm not a big fan of polls todays Gallup/USA Today poll at least helps me reaffirm my assumption that he is not going to get many disenfranchised Hillary voters.
Quote:
Among Democratic women — including those who may be disappointed that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton did not win the Democratic nomination — 9% say Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, 15% less likely.
Even for Independent women who bother to go out and vote Mc Cain I doubt it will be significant polls or not. He didn't have a double digit % loss among women prior to this pick for nothing. His positions have been against helping out most women in America and its too late to hide it behind his VP pick. I can only hope in the fall that 30 second sound bytes doesn't cause enough uniformed women who simply want to see a woman on the ticket
Of course I could go on about her qualification of actually being president which I don't want to argue. There is plenty of other dairies showing that here. Just to touch on it though: Being mayor of a small town of 6,000 squandering the budget over buying land for a sports arena. To now being governor for just 20 months. And her conservative beliefs... I cant argue the general narrative will sell well to its target audience, because it does. Yet I know in the war of 30 sound byte ads in October it will be very clear to voters how conservative she is and being very close to being president if Mc Cains health at 72yrs went bad. This is a question non conservatives will ask, which make up more then half of our voting country and that is an important question to ask yourself when your entering your ballot.
You know though P.T. Barnum has that saying "No one ever lost money under estimating the intelligence of the American public" and that is the worry I have this election. Its worked for 8 years so far. Although I think even the stupid people or just simply those that don't care are able to get it through their thick skull this time. That and even conservatives that are tired of this neo conservative bull shit.
I also concede that this was a probably a good choice in the ways it is giving Mc Cain attention now. Yet this whole premise that it will make a significant boost for him with women I feel won't work high enough in their % hopes. Nor the "making history" argument. I'm sorry Barack and Hillary branded that already with the presidential race. The only history Sara Palin would make is under a dismal failed administration that is already obvious for those 18 million voters that it won't be a Hillary/Democratic one.
In the end all that matters will be who comes out and vote. I still think Obama has enough momentum to actually even get the young voters and all these newly registered voters from his grassroots leviathan is calling and going door to door with. In the crucial swing states his offices and manpower support far outpaces anything seen in history and compared to Mc Cains. His donation army continues to set records each month. He is sitting on this cash to dominate in commercials come October that will own the celebrity ad, and own both Mc Cain, Palin, Rove and Schmidt. Ive seen the negative ads David Axelrod can do and I have no doubt we will see it come crunch time. I know Obama is against old politics but such as in his speech he proves that the attacks don't have to be so far fetched as calling someone unpatriotic or a celebrity but still be effective. Plus the debates coming up, Obama not being done with memorable speeches and good rallies. Don't forget we can count on Mc Cain, and yes I'm willing to put money on Sara Palin making gaffe's. Come October they won't be allowed to be ignored anymore. And we have had plenty of Mc Cain gaffe's missed I am just so extremely confident he won't fail us now with his inability to avoid them.
Mc Cain would have probably done better making a "safer" pick then gambling on this shock value attention in the news. I hope Sara Palin keeps with her stump on the "glass ceiling, Hillary Clinton" line also. Ill enjoy watching it come back to bite her in the future with a Clinton retort that is effective at dispelling it considering how different a woman she is. Hillary didn't get so far just because she was a women. I'm disappointed about the VP debate now too, not that I don't think Biden will come out of it strong still without coming across as picking on her. She is running for VP, that argument is null. If she is stupid on issues and it shows it will be her ass. She probably will given she has no experience, I was hoping for a substantive debate since I'm sure all we will hear from Mc Cain is "POW, POW, POW!"
So John Mc Cain, no, you are not fooling anyone. You can shore up all the possible web sites for McCain/Palin, give us a good narrative, and even use mother nature to your advantage with Gustav. Yet you and your party won't fool most of the American people again this time. Maybe the 8 years of the Obama administration will actually give your party some time to shore up the real conservatives that we can have a healthy debate about real American values and issues.