So, here we go, my first Kos post. On Friday, John McCain picked his running mate for the Presidential election, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska. Now that both tickets have effectively been decided, and the GOP is about to launch into its convention, perhaps now is a good time for an "expert" (note: not actually expert) analysis of the US Presidential election. The twist? I'm not American - I'm an Australian. I'm 23, and I have studied politics, social research and opinion polling at university. I like to study elections - my own ones, and American ones. Sometimes it's good to get a foreigners perspective on things. Anyway, here's my honest account of the race so far - from afar.
Polls go up, polls go down. But sometimes, when you see consistent polling, it tells you something. In Australia last year in November, we threw out our crackpot conservatives from office. The signs were there all year - but people just couldn't believe it was happening. Here was a long serving government, led by a man - John Howard - who most in the media thought was basically invincible... and it was being soundly beaten in the polls all year. 55-45. 59-41. 56-44. It went on and on all year. Now, nobody really expected that result to be replicated in Australia on election day. The final result was closer to 53-47, but the signs had been there for all to see all year. In poll after poll, the Labor party was winning. Over and over again.
How is this relevant to the US race? Well, because I see a very similar thing happening again in your polling data. Not on the scale - but on the consistency. Over and over again, Obama has been in the range of 45-50% in key swing states and in national polls. And likewise, McCain has consistently been behind - at some point between 40-45%. SO why is the narrative in the media so close? Well, because the media are shocked that it's not bigger. In reality, they don't really understand polls. They think they do - and then they wave big polls in everyone's face on television, like Obama being 47% to McCain 43%. They call it close, but in reality, 4% is a massive margin over an entire country of over 280 million people. When we changed our government in Australia, with a population of 20 million under a system of compulsory voting, it only took one in every Twenty people to change their vote from 2004 to 2007 to toss out our government with a 5% swing. Think about that. Bush won in 2004 by a tight margin. If One in every twenty people decided to change to the democrats, Obama would win in a landslide. Given everything that's happened in America, do you think one in twenty people are likely to change their vote this year? Are one in twenty people likely to vote for the first time? Who are they voting for? Keep these questions in mind when you look at the polls.
I also see similar themes emerging in your election. Especially two key ones. The first theme is The Past versus the future. McCain is the past. Obama is the future. In Australia, John Howard was the past, and Kevin Rudd, under the slogan "New Leadership", was the future. Well, the future won. The second theme cost of living pressures - food, petrol, credit, the sub-prime crisis, home loans, interest rates, debt. Health care, ecucation. And especially, a set of pro-business, anti-Union labour laws that removed workers protections, holiday pay, and other priveledges in the workplace. These were bread and butter issues for the centre-left opposition - the Labor party campaigned on these issues and it did so very successfully.
On top of all this, you have the added concerns about the incompetent government of George Bush, as well as a discredited foreign policy.
All elections are about issues - not just personalities. This election, perhaps more than any other in living memory for you guys, is not just about who you'd want to have a beer with. This is about serious business. The economy. Foreign policy. Very, very weighty stuff. Polling data doesn't just reflect the candidate for President - it also reflects what people are feeling about the country. I saw one poll say that 80% of people think the country is on the wrong direction. They're saying that for a reason. They say it because they are suffering under cost of living increases, or they think America has lost its prestige. These issues point towards change. People don't want change simply because Barack Obama stood in front of a gigantic banner reading "Change", while repeatedly saying "Change". That word does mean something, even if the policy proposals aren't specific. That word means something very simple: not George Bush. Not the last 8 years. And, if the democrats do their job right, it also means "No way, no how, No McCain."
So many of the polls have been confusing, contradictory, et cetera. At least, that's what the media have been saying. The reality is a fair bit different. Lets clear the smoke away for just a second. Lets forget about all the polls, although I will get to them in just a moment.
Take a moment and ask yourself this question. What is this election about? As with every single election, and as this year probably more so than ever, as it was with the Australian election last year, this election is about issues. As I just said, this election is about BIG issues. Big economic, foreign policy, social policy issues. The whole shebang. People are unhappy in America and right around the world. They are pissed off about the war in Iraq. They are pissed off about the sub-prime crisis, oil prices, the cost of living. People are losing jobs, homes, their health insurance, loved ones in Iraq, and above all else, their confidence in their leaders. This isn't just happening in America, it's happening everywhere in the western world. In England, The centre-left Labour party is probably going to lose to David Cameron's watered-down conservatives next year. In New Zealand, Helen Clark's Labour is going to lose to the Nationals in a few months. In Europe, we have seen France break from the past to elect a pro-American economic reformer. In Germany, a hung parliament led to the election of the conservative Angela Merkel in a grand coalition. Burlesconi returned to power again in Italy. Even in Sweden, that left-wing paradise, they tossed their long standing centre-left government. Finally, in my country of Australia, we booted out our long-serving conservative government last year for a centre-left Labor government because of the same cost of living issues that are plaguing every government in the world.
Change is happening everywhere at the moment. People aren't happy. When they have a good economic or foreign policy reason to change their government, they usually do. In America, these same forces are at work right now. On top of these pre-existing forces, they have also just suffered through eight years of the worst, most outrageously bad government since Nixon. And they know it. All of these factors point to an easy victory for the Democratic Party. Believe me - in the end, these are the factors that people will base their vote on.
Why then, is this race so apparently close? Well, lets just back the truck up a second. Lets just have a look at the polls, and the factors. Despite the media narrative, Barack Obama has been ahead in the polls all year from anywhere between a statistical dead heat to about eight or ten points. Consistently in every national poll, and in key battleground states, Barack Obama's numbers are somewhere between 45-50%, and John McCain's numbers are somewhere between 40-45%. Such consistency over many months is not an accident. Polling data has been remarkably stable on this, despite all the chaos over Hillary Clinton, Paris Hilton, and all the VP theatrics. Since Obama's speech, Gallup has given him a bounce up to 49-41 (although national polls are unreliable - lts wait for state polls). We'll be able to get a better idea of trend lines after the republican convention finishes, but for the moment lets look at why things have been the way they are.
I think the reason why Obama hasn't been winning in a landslide is simple - people don't know him, or are unsure of him, or are scared of him. But they know John McCain. However, John McCain is running on a platform of policies that are basically a continuation of Bush. It is the mother of all shit sandwiches. Sooner or later, people are going to realise that it's not in their economic interests to do so.
Barack Obama have his big convention speech last week. It out-rated the Olympics opening ceremony, and it's the biggest acceptance speech audience in a long time. That indicates to me that people are extremely interested in changing their government, but they want to have a good hard look at Obama first. They want to know he's capable enough to be President. He doesn't have to convince people he'd be better than McCain on National security - Kevin Rudd never managed to out-rate John Howard in polls on that issue, but Rudd still won big because people were thinking about other things. He doesn't have to prove he'll be better than McCain - he just needs to prove that he can handle it well. Every young presidential candidate always faces these questions - JFK and Bill Clinton did too, but they still won because the issues ran their way.
Obama sits on the right side of every issue. For me, a very important polling statistic, and one that has come up consistently, is that people trust Obama more on the economy. That is extremely important. If people are felling that way, Obama is 3/4 of the way to being President. The last 1/4 is just proving that he can adequately handle national security. If he can do this.
With this all said, here is my early prediction at what I think's going to happen in the coming months.
I think the American people will remain rather undecided right up until election time. Don't be surprised if you still see polls that look very similar to the ones over the past few months, that have Obama ahead of McCain only by small-medium sized margins right up to October.
After the debates are finished, and when people have seen where the candidates actually stand on the issues, they will stop and have a good long think. They will think long and hard about the issues that will effect their standard of living. They will decide that they agree with Barack Obama on almost all economic and cost of living issues - they agree with his message of Change - they just aren't 100% sure of the messenger. They will use up every bit of time they have judging whether they think Obama can handle national security issues to a high enough standard - not necessarily better than McCain, but adequately enough. At some point during the debates, or just afterwards, nearly half of those 20% of Hillary supporters who have been undecided will realise that Obama stands for their agenda. They will grudgingly trickle to Barack Obama, giving him the votes of about 85% of democrats. The rest will join the swinging voters.
Somewhere between one week and one day before the election, swinging voters will make up their mind.
They will look at their wallets, look at McCain, look at Obama. They will remember the previous eight years of George Bush. They will look at the Iraq War, the economy, their own economic circumstances. Change that they need? Or Better the Devil you know? And then they'll vote. And most likely, they will put Obama in the White House. How big will the margin be? Who knows. It could be a surprise landslide. But in the end, I think people's rage at the status quo will doom John McCain.
This is what I think will happen under the current dynamics. This can change quickly, of course - if there was another terrorist attack, for example. Or if there was another economic collapse - or if Hurricane Gustav wipes out New Orleans again. McCain could try and run an all out assault in an attempt to make the election about national security. And then, there's the dreaded Bradley effect. But for now, lets leave it with this:
Always keep in mind the issues. Issues matter the most. Candidates need to be seen as competent enough to deliver on issues. If Obama can prove his competence on National Security, he should win this election.