A recent CNN poll showed "no bounce" from the speech (after McCain's VP pick) but Gallup shows a six point lead. So I went to the Gallup website to look into how they conduct their polls.
I'm particularly interested in them because they seem to be the most well known, if not the most reputable. But the poll methods they provide leave more questions for me than answers. Here's what they state:
http://www.gallup.com/...
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug. 28-30, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,730 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
So, 1000+ adults. But (who) are these adults? Are they registered voters? Only people who declare to be 'likely' voters? How do you mix up the demographics and geographies of who you contact? How do you obtain these telephone numbers?
Any insight you guys can provide would be helpful. Also, who are some other reputable polling companies?