CBS has just posted its first poll with vice-presidential names included, and it shows a significant post-convention bounce for Obama:
The eight-point lead for the Democratic ticket is up from Obama’s three-point lead before the convention.
We are beginning to accumulate a solid set of post-convention polls, including the two tracking polls and the earlier (dubious) CNN poll. Kitty has a diary on the recommended list about the two tracking polls in particular.
To recap:
• Rasmussen tracking has Obama holding at +3, 49 to 46.
• Gallup tracking has Obama holding at +6, although it now shows 49 to 43.
• CNN has Obama up 1 at 49 to 48 (that is to say, they are really pushing the leaners).
and
• CBS, much gentler on its leaners, has the race at 48 to 40.
The consensus of these polls, then, has Obama up +4.5 at the start of the RNC this week.
More good news from the CBS poll:
Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent.
This suggests that while the Palin VP pick may have pleased the fundamentalist Republican base, it did little to motivate moderate voters, or women:
Obama's lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
Now let's see some state polls in the next couple of days ...
-- Stu
Update: Added linkie, not sure how that wasn't there in the first place.
Also as jenontheshore notes, it is important to realize that Obama's excellent speech, viewed by 38 million households, clearly did have a strong effect:
The poll shows an increase in the number of Obama voters who are enthusiastic about him. Sixty-seven percent of Obama voters say they enthusiastically support him, which is up from 48 percent who said so before the convention. About a quarter of McCain’s backers are enthusiastic about him--unchanged from before the Democratic convention.
Needless to say, this suggests that Obama's support is firming up while McCain's is still extremely fragile, despite catering to the base with his VP pick. Will anything that happens at the RNC this week change that dynamic? If not, Huggy Bear may find himself with very limited chances remaining to change the dynamic. By the middle of next week, we should begin to see what the ground for the race is from here on out ...
Update 2 As typoink notes below, with leaners the margin is the same, at 50 to 42, and yes, it does feel good to see that 50, doesn't it? The full crosstabs are in pdf file here, and, alas, you can continue to mine the details and discuss them in comments, because family duty calls ...