In a year when a "generic" Democrat candidate handily defeats a "generic" Republican, why is Barack Obama running neck-and-neck (or even behind) John McCain? Yes, racism is certainly a factor, as is the Palin buzz effect. But I think another contributor is the Obama's failure to adjust a successful primary message to the very different requirements of the general election.
During the primary season, Barack Obama presented himself as a "different sort of Democrat" emphasizing themes of "change" and "hope." These message elements focused less on his goals (which in fact were not dramatically different from those of his primary opponents) than on the means to achieving those goals -- less confrontation and brinksmanship, more bipartisan working together toward common objectives. It was a message that successfully differentiated Obama from his primary competitors -- and ultimately secured him the nomination.
But there are some real problems with this message in the general election campaign. If a Democrat is elected instead of a Republican, "change" is sort of a given, so placing a lot of emphasis on change per se doesn't buy a lot. And the "different sort of Democrat" theme only serves to remind voters that McCain has long been seen as a "different sort of Republican" -- and one who might (had he not sold out) have brought about "change." The highly personalized campaign against McCain (or worse, Palin) reinforces this problem -- it positions the election as a "who do I like better" or "who do I trust more" sort of decision -- to be made on the basis of trivia like computer skills and celebrity status.
But this election doesn't really need to be about Barack Obama versus John McCain. I'd like to see the Obama campaign switch to simple but aggressive Democrat versus Republican, "us versus them" message that lumps McCain and Palin together with all the other Republicans. With the current administration's approval ratings in the toilet, with 70% of American's believing that the country is headed in the wrong direction, Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee ought to be able to win this election simply by reminding voters of all the reasons behind their righteous anger -- not just at McCain, not just at the current administration, but at the Republican party in general and all that they have done to destroy this country while they've held power over the past 8 years:
They promised national security, but ignored the warnings of terrorism experts that could have prevented the 9/11 attack.
They borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars from the Chinese to fund tax cuts for rich fat cats, driving down the value of the US dollar and creating an enormous debt that our children will have to pay back.
They promised to clean up corruption and instead gave us Jack Abramoff, Tom Delay, Ted Stephens, Duke Cunningham, and Scooter Libby.
They promised to avoid frivolous foreign misadventures, but instead launched an unprovoked and unnecessary war in Iraq that has cost over 5,000 American lives, 100,000 Iraqi lives, and half a trillion dollars of taxpayers' money.
They allowed crooked corporations like Enron and Worldcom destroy the life savings of thousands of workers, retirees, and shareholders.
They promised fiscal responsibility and instead spent taxpayers' money like drunken sailors, transforming a budget surplus into the largest budget deficit ever.
They let mortgage lenders and financial institutions to run wild, destroying home values and driving the US into the worst economic decline in decades.
They munched birthday cake and cracked jokes while Katrina was killing thousands of people and destroying one of America's premier cities.
They took a vibrant U.S. economy and transformed it into what former Fed chief Alan Greenspan calls "the worst economy I've ever seen."
Harry Truman asked the Amercan people "How many times you have to be hit over the head before you figure out who's hitting you?"
The Obama campaign's simple message should be: "They are the ones hitting you over the head. Do you really need to be hit for another four years to figure this out?"
UPDATE: The Obama campaign's response to the most recent financial meltdown is a good example of the direction I'd like to see - forget McCain and focus instead on the failure of the philosophy of the clowns who have been running things for the past 8 years.