Survey USA released a new poll of Ohio showing McCain with a 49-45 lead.
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Poring over the internals here are some thoughts:
- Other than it being a weekend poll, there aren't any weird results. There's a +9 Dem party advantage, sounds about right. Obama's getting 90% of the AA vote, he's down 16 among white voters which both sound about right.
- The electorate in Ohio has changed enough that all Obama needs to do is equal what Kerry did among Democrats and he'll win. Unfortunately, His lead among Dems is only 77-19, while Kerry won 90-9.
- There is one bit of good news. Obama is getting slaughtered among leaners. 80% of voters say there mind is made up and Obama leads 49-48 among them. Among voters who say they could change there mind, he trails 55-31.
Bottom line, I think we're behind but as the leaner number suggests, its still a winnable race.