In a Washington Post report on the damage to Fallujah, one can foresee the anger that is going to be felt by Iraqi citizens as they return to their homes.
Finally, however, I have an answer to my question as to how many non-insurgents had remained in Fallujah:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58510-2004Nov17.html
"It's not a humanitarian crisis," said Maj. Jim Orbock, a soldier with the Army's 445th Civil Affairs Battalion. "I think we have a decent handle on what's going on. As the civilians are coming out, we're feeding them. We have everything -- food, water."
The majority of Fallujah's 250,000 residents fled before the offensive began, and Orbock said it was hard to estimate how many stayed, probably fewer than 1,000. "We know they are out there," he said.
For me, and maybe for you, the worrying aspect is that there were no details forthcoming from the military before the strike about the number of civilians left in the city, although there were vague figures of around 30,000 mentioned. If it had been known that there were only about 1000, then I feel certain this would have been declared in order to minimise anxiety about the action.
What this adds up to is just how poor the intelligence remains about what is happening outside the guarded enclaves in which the troops and the interim government are operating.
Now in the NYT comes an even more worrying intelligence report - this time based on actual knowledge on the ground.:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/18/international/middleeast/18troops.html?hp&ex=1100840400&en
=6b27992e86a60966&ei=5094&partner=homepage
Senior Marine intelligence officers in Iraq are warning that if American troop levels in the Falluja area are significantly reduced during reconstruction there, as has been planned, insurgents in the region will rebound from their defeat. The rebels could thwart the retraining of Iraqi security forces, intimidate the local population and derail elections set for January, the officers say.
They have further advised that despite taking heavy casualties in the weeklong battle, the insurgents will continue to grow in number, wage guerrilla attacks and try to foment unrest among Falluja's returning residents, emphasizing that expectations for improved conditions have not been met.
The pessimistic analysis is contained in a seven-page classified report prepared by intelligence officers in the First Marine Expeditionary Force, or I MEF, last weekend as the offensive in Falluja was winding down. The assessment was distributed to senior Marine and Army officers in Iraq, where one officer called it "brutally honest."
So, there is no end to Fallujah. It demands the maintenance of a large force, outside the camps that afford some R&R and security, that sufficiently stretched those available in Iraq to require Tony Blair to volunteer under exceptionally difficult political circumstances the assistance of British troops.
None of this bodes well. Because there is no going back on this war for George Bush. Because he is determined to win it.