There has been a lot of reporting on whether Palin was a brilliant pick for McCain or whether she has undercut some of the themes around which he had attempted to build his platform for election (e.g. experience, foreign policy, fiscal conservatism, etc.).
Lost in the discussion is a major tactical disadvantage that has been unfolding in the past two days.
Last week, Dana99 wrote a diary entitled "McCain afraid to campaign alone" pointing out that the McCain camp was suggesting that the McCain-Palin "chemistry" was so great that they just might campaign together for the rest of the cycle.
As Dana99 rightly pointed out, it's clear their chemistry isn't great and the real reason behind this shift has been the fact that McCain alone tends to draw anemic crowds in contrast with Palin who draws larger, more enthusiastic crowds.
Number 1 has become number 2.
But it's clear that isn't the only reason that the two have been forced to merge. Palin on her own can't be exposed to direct questioning for fear that she will reveal her inexperience and lack of knowledge for what it is. Stump the Candidate? Yes, it's only a matter of time.
To solve these two problems, the McCain campaign has been forced to bring their two candidates together. McCain gets bigger more enthusiastic crowds. Palin gets a safety net for tough questions (see PLU Tim'sanalysis of Palin's inability to handle her first town-hall question).
So how big of a tactical advantage is this for Obama and how big of a tactical disadvantage is this for McCain?
Do the math.
This race will come down to what is now a very large list of potential swing states (NV, NM, OH, IN, MI, PA, WV, NH, VA, FL) to name just a few. With the noise about the economy and the massive advertising spending by candidates and third parties, it's hard to break through with a clear message. With so many states still in play, and with Obama having a larger number of solid states already locked in, McCain is going to have to pick up almost all of these swing states to secure the election.
And there-in lies the challenge.
Obama already enjoys a clear advantage in this context with his phenomenal ground game (you're not laughing about community organizers now, are you?).
Another clear advantage will be that we're now running two candidates against one (actually three or four against one if you count the fact that Bill and Hillary are stumping for Obama while Bush and Cheney are being carefully kept under wraps).
While Obama campaigns with multiple stops today in New Mexico and Biden campaigns in aggressively Ohio, McPalin is relying on short stops in multiple states to make up for lost ground.
There are a lot of reasons why this is still a tough election and will still be two tight for comfort, but I think we'll see the swing-state numbers to continue to move in the right direction over the next month as Obama-Biden break through the noise with local appearances and while McPalin slogs along at 50% effectiveness.
P.S. If you haven't already done so, go to www.MyBarackObama.com to learn more about the tools that Obama has put in place for his ground game and to find out how you can help.