None of us knows what will happen Tuesday. We can take educated guesses, but we don't know.
But one thing I haven't heard much about is the forecast for New Hampshire on Tuesday.
It's expected to begin snowing heavily in the afternoon.
If the snow starts earlier, kids might come home early from school.
If evening traffic is bad, people may opt not to stop by the local polling station on the way home.
Seems to me this is a major factor. I don't know who it will help, but it'll probably be good for someone. As a Dean supporter, of course, I imagine it'll be good for him. First off, it seems to me that the Kerry shift has been largely in less committed voters; aside from the fact that they were willing to switch in the bat of an eye, polls on level of commitment support this - as does the fact that in national polls where people aren't as involved as in NH, the Kerry swing is substantial. Secondly, it's possible that Dean's people are more likely to brave the weather, if they're truly younger and if his machine is able to bring them to the polls; this is the weakest argument in my mind, because it's the one that failed in Iowa, (although Iowa weather was good...) Finally, they say that any last-minute factor is most risky for the frontrunner, for obvious reasons.
Just possible reasons for hope. For the record, I'm not expecting much. But it's politics, you really never know...