Much of the discourse between diarists at this site over the past week as Obama/Biden's poll numbers slipped a bit has consisted of the following: dire prophecies by doom and gloomers certain that the death of the Democratic Party's hopes is written in the stars for all to see, and outraged pom-pom waving pollyannas who think that because the mere thought of a McPalin White House is so abjectly horrifying, there's no way it could possibly happen, and will you please please please stop raining on my parade fuck you very much (fingers in their ears...'i can't hear you, i can't hear you, i can't hear you...)
As an admitted pessimist who tends much more towards the former but has by no means given up hope, I feel compelled to defend my supremely cautious outlook towards this election, if not my pessimistic nature in general. So I've got a few things to say about the whole back-and-forth mentioned in my intro, and why you can count me among those who are by no means certain that just because we obviously have the best candidate, that doesn't necessarily mean we are waltzing towards victory:
- The 'Oh no it's happening again' syndrome. The horrors of '00 are still fresh in my mind; given the nature of American presidential politics since the end of WWII, in retrospect it was no surprise that we lost. (Only once in the intervening 55 years, during the Reagan/Bush 41 years, have we as Americans elected the same party to 3 presidential terms in a row.) Even though the Repugs had to steal it in '00 in the most blatant, egregious power grab in American politics in at least the previous century, it still fit the pattern. (Conversely, that same paradigm is one of the things that gives me the most hope about our chances this year.) This is fresh in my head; memories are still painful of 11/04/00, sitting up at a local brewpub, drinking until 2 am and hanging on the outcome of Florida, disappointed that I'd have to wait until the next morning to find out who would be our next president...
While I'm not as convinced as some that Ohio was truly stolen in '04, at least not in the same fashion as Florida '00, still the sour taste of being so tantalizingly close further took hold. Being a hopeful pessimist, I can do nothing else but prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. So do I now.
- Just because you want it so bad don't make it a foregone conclusion. I'm amazed at the insipid, vacuous attitude that pervades so many diaries I've read by people who think that it (a McPalin victory) can't possibly happen. (Another example of me as a rookie diarist: I didn't think to save any examples to link to.) Ever heard of George W. Bush? It most certainly can get as bad as you possibly think it can, and then some. It has. There's no reason it can't happen again.
- Invariably, any interjection of yellow flags, cautionary notes, or honest expressions of fear or despondency in the face of the rah rah echo chamber mentality leads to accusations of ' Concern troll! Concern troll!' While I'm sure concern trolls do exist, I feel that by and large this is just an example of the whole attack the messenger and not the message syndrome. Call the guy a concern troll, and whether s/he is or not, there's no need to respond to anything they say, since the person who said it has been invalidated.
I've been reading diaries at dKos for years and have only recently begun to write my own. One valid point I did glean from a poster hurling accusations of 'concern troll' was that the alleged concern troller had not posted previous diaries from which to draw any sort of perspective on this person, and so they were therefore suspect. That's one of the reasons I've decided to start keeping a diary of my own...hopefully if I interject a note of caution into the debate, at least I can't be accused of having no history and of therefore being a troll by default.
- The Bradley Effect is real, it does exist, and it could mean the difference in this race if it is as close in the end as it is now. We all know that black candidates tend to do worse in an actual election than they do in polls beforehand. Seems like people who are skittish about voting for a particular candidate because of their ethnicity are a lot more likely to reveal their true stripes in the voting booth than they are to a pollster. Go figure. An odd exception to this (and I'm sure the hardcore wonks can point to many more) was Indiana this year; I think most of us thought that Hillary would blow Obama away, and damned if it wasn't a squeaker, in defiance of all expectations. The hopeful part of me says maybe that's a sign that people really are ready to look beyond superficial differences (like race) this year.
- Just because I'm a pessimist doesn't mean I'm any less loyal a Democrat than you are, Pollyanna. I can't deny that I feel much better given the rapid swing in the polls in our direction the past few days, but for all the reasons enumerated above, I'm not giddy with exultation either. I honestly believe that if this election is truly decided based upon the issues, Obama wins, maybe even in a landslide. Every major issue in this election that you can name points ultimately to one thing: the utter, abject failure of the conservative philosophy in American governance. If we can drill that through to the voters, the day is ours. If the day is carried by the right's distraction/lie/filth spewing machine, which is remorseless, bottomlessly creative, and extant in a vacuum in which truth has no meaning, then we're in big trouble again. It's happened before, but maybe, just maybe the stakes are just too high this year for the old switch/dodge/evade technique to work again.
In short, if you accuse me of being a republican troll just because I'm not ready to crack open the champagne just yet, fuck you, fuck you good and hard. If we were in the streets and you hurled these accusations you and I would have words, but because we aren't, this is all I can say in defense of my outlook on this election.