PPP has just released a poll for North Carolina, showing Obama tied with McCain 46% to 46%. Their last poll showed McCain ahead by 4 points. Seem too incredible to believe? Well one must remember that Rasmussen issued a poll today for South Carolina showing Obama down only by 6 points (51 to 45)! PPP's results would both confirm the surge documented in South Carolina by Rasmussen (North Carolina generally polls 7 to 10 points ahead of South Carolina) and is all the more plausible given the Rasmussen South Carolina poll results from today.
Anyway, here is the link to the PPP North Carolina poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Some interesting points in the poll is the surge the economy has taken as being the most important issue in the election. Here is how the economy has broken down as an issue in previous PPP polls of NC:
Date % listing economy as top issue Spread
1/21/08 39% McCain +14
5/9/08 43% McCain +7
8/23/08 48% McCain +3
9/19/08 58% Tied
For those of you doubting that North Carolina can turn blue this year, I suggest you read a diary I did last month concerning the voter registration numbers in North Carolina this year and comparing them to those in 2004 (I have since updated the diary to include voter registration numbers from this month):
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Moreover, look at ad spending. In June, McCain was spending nothing on tv ads in North Carolina. Now look at the weekly tv ad buys for each campaign in North Carolina: McCain $245,000 Obama $300,000.
UPDATE: Some other notable points from the poll. Obama leads in urban areas (55 to 36) no surprise, but also suburban areas (54 to 40) and even small towns (46 to 44)! On the other hand, Obama is still having problems getting the requiste level of white support to win. I project that Obama would need somewhere in the neighborhood of 37% of the white vote to win, but right now he is only getting 33%. One factor that could counter that is African American turnout. PPPs poll has African Americans making up 21% of the voters, but if they slighly outperform their current percentage of the registered electorate (which is 21%) that could also push Obama over the top.
Given how pivotal the Mid-Atlantic states have become this election cycle I will be putting out a diary later concerning the voter registration numbers for Virgina and how they predict what will happen election day. Given that Virginia does not identify voters by political party this will require some inferential analysis, but I believe some conclusions can be made.