There are two new Florida polls out this morning, both of which show Obama trailing McCain very narrowly, and both of which suggest that the economic crisis may decide the state (and very possibly for Obama).
First there is the Miami Herald/St. Pete Times poll conducted 9/14-9/17 that has M 47, O 45 (MoE 3.5%).
Then there is the Research 2000 poll for the Sun Sentinel, conducted 9/15-9/18, which shows M 46, O 45 (MoE 4%).
The money quote from the write-up of the latter poll:
"It's competitive, no question, and obviously the economy is the top issue," said Del Ali of Research 2000, an independent pollster who conducted the telephone survey.
"What took place on Wall Street this week helped Obama in Florida," Ali said. "His numbers went up with each day we polled. For him to win Florida, it's obviously important for the economy to stay the top issue."
(emphasis mine)
And these polls were taken before Obama's two day trip through the state, including the boisterous rally in Jacksonville yesterday (attended by yours truly and his family, who made the 90 minute drive up to see our next President). It is impossible, I think, to understate how energized African Americans (who made up at least half the crowd yesterday) are by this election, and, as Plouffe recently noted, there were hundreds of thousands of eligible black voters who either didn't vote or who were not registered four years ago.
Both polls indicate that the economy has very swiftly become the issue, and that Obama has a solid advantage in terms of who can turn things around.
From the Miami Herald:
But if the economic crisis deepens, ''Obama is in a position to improve his poll numbers, given the confidence in his handling of the economy,'' said Democratic pollster Tom Eldon of Schroth, Eldon & Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway.
and
But when asked which of the candidates will best ''improve the economy,'' Obama was chosen over McCain 49 to 40 percent for all voters and 53 to 30 percent among independent voters. For voters who also answered that the economy is the most important issue, Obama led 56 to 34 percent.
(emphasis mine)
There are more details on the Sun Sentinel survey here. One other surprising and encouraging number is that Obama actually leads in the 60+ age group 45 to 43 according to this poll. I think a visit or two by Joe Biden and/or Hillary Clinton to discuss what the latest financial crisis proves about the wisdom of Republican bank deregulation and McCain's desire to privatize social security (and to do for the health care industry what they did for banking) might be very, very effective right now.
The upshot: Florida is very winnable this year. And if Obama wins Florida, he wins the election. We have to continue to work hard on the ground here, but I am cautiously optimistic.
-- Stu