As soon as McCain said he was going to DC to help pass a bailout deal, we knew three things.
First, there was going to be no deal signed by House and Senate Republicans until McCain got to Washington and it could be spun that he brought the deal home and--we will be reminded of this until our stomachs are empty and our abdomens ache, I fear, over the next week—that McCain saved the US from economic crisis. Sometimes there's not enough Pepto...
We knew this was a ploy, specifically designed to help McCain's numbers on the economy and therefore his momentum, and only of secondary relevance to the debates themselves.
Second, we knew Obama and the Democrats would play by the rules, listen to "reason" (in the guise of Paulson and Bernanke), and try to get the bailout deal negotiated and done before McCain could enjoy any photo-ops "leading" Republicans with the graphic of a ticking clock in the corner of our television screens. Obama would push on for the debates. Why? Because if McCain lost the first debate, given his numbers and frantically un-presidential week or so, then McCain would surely lose the election. Even if Obama were to lose the first debate, given McCain’s dyspeptic cameos and the economy's pre-eminence as an issue, Obama could and would come back. We knew the Democrats might even stop negotiations that might take many hours--say, to get the banking industry and GOP to repeal the draconian personal bankruptcy laws they ramroded through a few years back--so that a bailout deal could be signed before McCain got the chance to appear to save the economy by getting the bailout passed in the eleventh hour. Obama fell into it by saying he wasn’t going back to DC like McCain. Then Bush asked both to come to DC and Obama had to go.
Going back on your words matters. It matters to Obama, but not to McCain. I used to think that McCain’s primitive cortex evolved before modern telecommunications—the pesky type that allows a reporter with a PDA to disprove with an archived contradictory statement or action, when faced with a bald-faced Senator from Arizona—and that was why he continually contradicted his record about, say, his regulatory prowess when the record is replete with his anti-regulatory statements, votes, and machinations. If true, this is moot: McCain doesn’t care about contradicting himself or lying, in person or to tape. It isn't that he's Rip Van Winkle, it's that he's Faust. He'll look straight into the camera and tell you his straight talk; an hour later, he'll look straight into the camera and deny he said it. It is true that he lies. What remains in doubt is if Independents and moderates will sanction his lying at the ballot box.
Third, we knew that no one but Bernanke and Paulson knew the exact nature or mixture of instruments Treasury would buy, that this was never delimited or specified--from among homes, mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, credit-default swaps, and scalped Amy Grant tickets—-so there remains a chance that other economists might just devise less or equally costly remedies with less or equal risk based on loaning, guaranteeing, buying, or leveraging combinations of ‘the toxic stuff on the banks’ books.’
What if McCain and his economic advisers pull a better—less costly, less risky, or both—plan out of their tailpipes, get GOP Representatives on board, and force the Senate to capitulate?
Then McCain saves us from economic crisis better than Paulson and Bernanke could. He endears himself to an angry, engaged electorate. Oh, and, in the process, he opposes and bests the two most hated political entities in the US: Congress and Bush.
Would Bernanke risk his career for this? Probably, if ordered. Would he risk his academic integrity for it? Probably not. Would the GOP Congress conspire with so much at stake? Dumb question. Could the Democrats do anything to take the ball (and camera) back?
You betcha. Their caucus could fall apart just like the Republican House caucus did today, and for the same base gamesmanship. The Dems, who outnumber the Republicans by the grace of God and good Americans, could refuse to sign on to any McCain-led plan.
[OK, say this third point is too far-fetched and let me take another whack at the third thing we know.]
Third, we know 100 million voters were going to be watching the first debate. McCain’s not much for studying—Jesus! Can’t the GOP nominate a presidential candidate who actually succeeded in college and professional life by studying and doing his homework? —and he knows he odds. [Gambling is his proficiency.] So he pulls this Mr. Magoo Goes to Washington, because he’s such a common man and has such a long history of ensuring he safety of the American economy with banking regulation... Enough snark.
He wants to lower expectations on himself, so the MSM and we spin his talk of no-showing to the debate as fear to debate Obama. So, McCain lowers expectations on his performance. Exactly what you want to do before a political debate. Obama says he’ll stay and debate, which raises expectations on his performance. This is exactly the end you don’t want to achieve in advance of a big political debate.
McCain gets to oppose a bailout that the electorate universally hates and he gets to oppose its proponents: Bush and, as he’ll paint it indiscriminately, Congress. He gets to lower expectations on his debate performance. Our guy gets to agree with Bush and (it will be spun) Wall Street and Congress, back an odious bailout, and raise the expectations of his debate performance.
Unless the Democrats play chicken against McCain and the GOP House and then [the Democrats] deliver this bailout, McCain could be polling even with Obama before the debate actually happens.
For what they lack in candidate substance and integrity, the GOP has made up ground in ruthless collusion.