toss·up /ˈtɔsˌʌp, ˈtɒs-/ [taws-uhp, tos-]
–noun
- the tossing of a coin to decide something by its fall.
2. an even choice or chance
Sites like Pollster (RealClearPolitics and CNN Election Center too) currently show Minnesota as a toss-up state, with the likes of Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada, who have actually shown conflicting polling results. Minnesota has not.
According to Pollster, the last poll that shows McCain with an advantage in Minnesota was conducted by SurveyUSA between March 14th and March 16th. Things that have happened since then:
Eliot Spitzer resigns as NY governor: March 18th.
U.S. casualties in Iraq reaches 4,000: March 23rd.
Charlton Heston dies: April 5th.
Pope Benedict XVI visits the U.S.: April 15th.
The Pennsylvania primary is held: April 22nd.
Cyclone hits Burma, killing over 133,000 people: May 3rd.
David Cook wins American Idol: May 21st.
The Boston Celtics win NBA championship: June 17th.
etc., etc., etc..
I'm not saying the state won't be competitive, Kerry won the state in 2004 by about 100,000, not an overwhelming amount. I just don't think it's in toss-up status. Toss-up means 50/50, or in other words, it would be a flip of the coin to predict the winner of Minnesota. Heads it's Obama, tails it's McCain. I just don't think that's the case.
How has Minnesota voted in the last 10 presidential elections?
- John Kerry (D)
- Al Gore (D)
- Bill Clinton (D)
- Bill Clinton (D)
- Michael Dukakis (D)
- Walter Mondale (D)
- Jimmy Carter (D)
- Jimmy Carter (D)
- Richard Nixon (R)
- Hubert Humphrey (D)
Minnesota has voted for the Democratic candidate for president more than any other state in the last 10 elections, including Massachusetts.
So should Obama shut down offices in Minnesota to focus on the real toss-up states? No, I don't think so. All I'm suggesting is that these sites wait for some conflicting poll results before placing a state in the toss-up category. When a couple polls come out showing McCain with even just a 1-2% advantage, then go ahead. But for now, this is pretty clearly a leans Obama state.
Oh, and in the meantime, let's see that Al Franken beats Norm Coleman in what will be one of the closest Senate races this year.