If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.
- Sun Tzu, the Art of War
As I am in Vienna I just finished watching the debate this morning.
So...my thoughts.
I am and have been a strong supporter of Barack for quite sometime.
I thought on anger points or the red meat that pundits adore, McCain probably came out technically at a 50.5/49.5.
On Style/Substance Obama 60/40
On Winning Independents....Obama 80/20
That is the only victory I will concede to Sen. McCain.
You see the problem was McCain needed to have Obama on the floor reeling and he didn't.
Obama did something smart in this debate that most folks won't get.
That "agree with John McCain" thing was very smart. The politeness thing was very smart. I HOPE THOSE OF YOU WHO DISAGREE WITH ME WILL HEAR ME OUT.
Obama has layed an electoral trap for McCain. Now those negative ads that come from McCain in the next weeks will seem even meaner and grumpier. You see Obama knew his victory would be in style and knowledge and demeanor. The ass kicking will come later. That will come in the economy debate. He wasn't going to blow his load tonight.
This really was a Nixon/Kennedy debate. McCain seemed irritated, grumpy, close to getting angry and clearly does not like Obama nor even offer any respectful or civil praise. That's works for us because it weakens his argument for uniting America and being post-partisan. McCain lost and he and his staff don't know it. That's why Toe Sucker Morris regretfully understood Obama's win. Obama was a hell of a lot more Reagan than any of these jokestars. He was nice. Obama wins when Obama smiles. The thing these bozos who always namedrop Reagan don't understand is that Reagan won because he was polite and even when aggressive remained respectful.
Physically we looked at these two people and listened to them and disregard for a second what most folks on here say about the debate. I went to TOWNHALL.COM to see what people thought over there. Of course they all thought McCain won handily. Obama's strategy was not for either group.This was a victory on the undecided/moderate/independents that will help us win this election. This debate was for the last group of folks, who have waited for a debate to get a feeling for someone. Obama won those people last night in a landslide. You will see Obama's poll numbers go up this coming week. McCain was playing the politics of the past and as this race gets uglier and uglier this will weigh more and more on McCain as a mean, grumpy old man. Remember. Obama only needed a tie to win tonight and he got it plus. After Thursday's VP debate expect the really ugly ads/tactics to come out because Obama/Biden will really rise in the polls. We need about 8 or 9 points by the 15th of October.
Obama has a narrative building always. I remember at the beginning of the DNC thinking that it wasn't aggressive enough, yet by the last night I thought it was brilliantly planned and I saw that he was building an arc. Starting with Michelle and each and every night it got a little more firm. There was a little more red meat.
Axelrod, Plouffe, & Obama are not fools. They know what they are doing.
He is building on each step. It is a very well thought out strategy. By him being polite, but forceful Obama is getting the public used to him and this will allow him to really go after John on the Economy without seeming angry and defensive. By the time Obama starts wacking McCain the public will think that McCain deserves it.
The last thing I will say is THANK YOU FOR THE PREP. BARACK. The ums/ahs. were few and far between. That was great. It was the only thing I was worried about. I knew how this debate would be and I knew that McCain would do exactly what he did. Barack has a plan and this plan includes all three debates and building a relationship with the audience.
McCain has fallen into a trap that he isn't even aware of and he will not see the punches coming... Remember this. National Security is over. THis was the debate that McCain was strongest and most prepared for and he didn't knockout Obama.
Now come the real fireworks...Starting Thursday.