As satisfying as it can be, it is terrible strategy to assume, as a premise, the incompetence or irrationality of one’s opponent. Though actions may eventually reveal the veracity of these assumptions, they form an extremely weak basis for one’s own response. Rather, we must confront McCain’s selection of Palin at face value – not as a blunder, but a calculated risk by a team of veteran Republican electioneers who are keenly aware of the overwhelming tide of resentment without, and disillusion within, their party. In making their selection, it is not reasonable to suppose that they did not consider Obama’s own choice, seeking with theirs not only to react, but to anticipate the likely Democratic countermove.
Clearly, Palin is riskier than a well-known figure, but the potential payoff is commensurately greater. To begin with, the social conservative faction—the core of Republican electoral strength—which had for some time been lukewarm on McCain, enthusiastically approves. Secondly, her small-town biography and style are a perfect counterpoint to the perceived cultural values that Obama’s campaign embodies. Those saying that McCain surrendered the experience argument miss the point; they are thinking reactively – that line of attack has already been pursued and exhausted. If anything, the media’s intense scrutiny of Palin’s experience, qualifications—or lack thereof—has given it new life.
No. I guarantee the intent now is to pivot to another line of attack, one fueled by the deep reservoir of cultural outrage that has defined our politics for more than three decades. It’s already beginning: in fact, the criticism she has—in my view, rightly—endured in the "liberal media" since her selection tees it up. The real question is whether the McCain campaign will be able to successfully define Obama in this way. Hillary very nearly did, and as much as we progressives deplore it, too often when elections are concerned, rational argument withers before the power of emotional and associative persuasion.
As soon as this convention is over, the Obama campaign had better not merely react, but seize and hold the initiative with a balanced mix of positive and negative messaging. This thing most certainly is not over yet.